The Future of Newspapers

People often ask me to predict how long newspapers can survive in the Internet age. Ten years ago I believed newspapers would last another five years. Clearly I am not qualified to make this sort of prediction. But being unqualified has never dampened my enthusiasm for publicly embarrassing myself. I think it’s time to take another run at this prediction.

First, it must be noted that old technologies sometimes evolve to stay relevant. For example, radio evolved from something the family listens to in the living room to something that individuals (mostly) listen to in the car. There’s some chance that newspapers could evolve in a totally unexpected way and thrive for a hundred years. Let me paint a picture that seems most likely to me.

I predict that the end of printed newspapers will happen in the time it takes for most people to upgrade their cell phones two more times. The iPhone, and its inevitable copycats, (let’s call them iClones) are newspaper killers. When you have a web browser in your pocket, a printed newspaper is redundant. Eventually, all cell phones will have Internet browsing built in. You might not have a web browser on your next cell phone, but the one after that will have it as a standard feature.

Most people prefer to read a printed page versus a computer screen. A cell phone screen is the worst of all. But newspapers will collapse as a business long before 100% of iPhone and iClone owners give up their printed newspaper subscriptions. I don’t know if it will take 20% of iPhone/iClone owners to cancel their subscriptions, or if it will take 60%, but whatever the number, it seems likely we will reach it. Then the printed newspaper will disappear.

The iPhone and iClones have several advantages over regular newspapers. The news on the Internet is mostly free, and updated by the minute. Your cell phone can include video clips, and the news can be filtered for your personal preferences. Browsing web pages on a phone is slow at the moment, but the speed will improve.

I predict one more innovation in cell phones that is the real wild card for newspapers. I’m sure someone has already invented this in a lab or written about it in a science fiction book, but it’s a somewhat obvious idea. Let's call it a Venetian screen.

Imagine your cell phone equipped with a built-in scroll of “digital paper” that pulls out to the side, like a sideways Venetian blind, for reading web pages and documents. It would look like this. (click to enlarge)

That will solve the issue of phone screens being too tiny to read. Your phone would still have a regular screen for most purposes, but for pleasure reading, you pull out the Venetian screen with its larger and clearer text.

In this imagined future, the newspaper publishers make the move to all-digital newspapers. But that won’t be much of a business unless they change the concept of a newspaper at the same time. What I’d like to see is a newspaper that is a hybrid of social voting, such as you see on web sites like www.reddit.com and www.digg.com, but further filtered by human editors who weed out the redundant, the juvenile, and the stuff unsubstantiated by facts. And I’d like to see counterpoints to everything. This way you’d get the stories and opinions considered most worthy by the public, with some editorial quality control.

I also imagine the business model for bloggers changing. Now bloggers run ads and make money based on the traffic to their sites. In the future, I can imagine bloggers opting in for a system where they allow newspapers to grab their content any time the newspapers want, move it into the newspaper’s own content model on any given day, surround it with their own ads, and pay the blogger a percentage of ad revenue. In other words, every blogger (and cartoonist) would be self-syndicated, but newspapers wouldn’t print the same bloggers every day. They’d grab only the best writings of the day based on social voting and the newspaper’s own editorial opinions.

Online newspapers would offer subscribers several options. You could have an uncensored online newspaper for adults, a G-rated version for kids, a version with extra helpings of good news, or celebrity news, etc. And of course the reader could select his own local news, weather, and ads.

Comics would be much funnier if cartoonists didn’t have to conform to a G rating as is now the case. With online newspapers, and individual filters for each reader, a kid could subscribe to a newspaper with Dilbert in it, but any off-color strips would be automatically replaced by something more appropriate for that day. Everyone wins.

It’s easy to think that everything I described could be so automated you never need much in the way of a newspaper business organizing it all. I don’t think that will ever happen. You still need hordes of people keeping the technology current, editing for quality control, doing the art, doing market testing, selling the right kind of ads, etc.

So I see printed newspapers lasting until you upgrade your phone two more times. But the newspaper business can thrive online if it changes how it gathers and edits content. And clearly there will be massive amounts of consolidation. There won’t be 3,000 newspapers online. There might be a dozen. And local news will come from hometown bloggers who self-syndicate to all of the newspapers.

That’s how I see it.

Comments

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[prefabrik konut]

The roll out screen! I've been anxiously awaiting that particular dream of mine to become a reality for exactly this reason!

[Lee-Anne Fisher]

I would like this to be posted in your paper free of charge if thats possible.

Thanking You

[Lee-Anne Fisher]

I would like this to be posted in your paper free of charge if thats possible.

Thanking You

[Ryan]

Your 'venetian blind' idea is not that far off

OELD monitors (from what I remember) are capable of being rolled up and are incredibly thin.

Sony just rolled out with them (currently very expensive, but the price would probably come down eventually)

http://www.sonystyle.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/ProductDisplay?catalogId=10551&storeId=10151&productId=8198552921665327724&langId=-1

[Great]

There's a voice that keeps on calling me. Down the road, that's where I'll always be. Every stop I make, I make a new friend. Can't stay for long, just turn around and I'm gone again. Maybe tomorrow, I'll want to settle down, Until tomorrow, I'll just keep moving on.

[yaroslav stolyarchuk]

While studying Computer Engineering at University I came across staggering data and statistics regarding minorities, graduation rates and access to books. In todays high tech media environment, all people, young people especially need to be encouraged to read physical books. When I had my first child I was disappointed at the high price of used books for children in my area. As I searched for a cost effective way to locate books I ran across this company: www.booksliquidation.com.
They offer wholesale prices on boxes to truckloads of used books (by genre) at very reasonable shipping rates throughout the US and abroad. For instance, at less than $50 a family can receive around 100 good condition kids books including shipping. Most books are like new condition and priced lower than books found at Goodwill or any used book store. The price of books is definitely one factor not talked about when promoting reading. Access to quality books at a price anyone can afford will most assuredly eliminate one barrier in regards to young people's ability to read. Statistics show that the average high-school graduate has(had) a minimum 50 books available to them to read in their homes. Those going on to post elementary education had atleast 100 books in their homes. Books are expensive! Booksliquidation.com is one company that is assisting families in their effort to create a rich at-home reading environment for their children and their personal reference.

[yaroslav stolyarchuk]

While studying Computer Engineering at University I came across staggering data and statistics regarding minorities, graduation rates and access to books. In todays high tech media environment, all people, young people especially need to be encouraged to read physical books. When I had my first child I was disappointed at the high price of used books for children in my area. As I searched for a cost effective way to locate books I ran across this company: www.booksliquidation.com.
They offer wholesale prices on boxes to truckloads of used books (by genre) at very reasonable shipping rates throughout the US and abroad. For instance, at less than $50 a family can receive around 100 good condition kids books including shipping. Most books are like new condition and priced lower than books found at Goodwill or any used book store. The price of books is definitely one factor not talked about when promoting reading. Access to quality books at a price anyone can afford will most assuredly eliminate one barrier in regards to young people's ability to read. Statistics show that the average high-school graduate has(had) a minimum 50 books available to them to read in their homes. Those going on to post elementary education had atleast 100 books in their homes. Books are expensive! Booksliquidation.com is one company that is assisting families in their effort to create a rich at-home reading environment for their children and their personal reference.

[estetik]

yes, Simpsons did it.

[joseph hollak]

What will I line my birdcage with?

[wendy fidler]

I believe technology will not over throw the printed news. One good example is not everyone is technology friendly. Print news can be circulated to a variety of people who do not own computers or the iphones/iclones. Newspapers will be around for a very long time considering the printing press was one of the first means of communication. I can also see how the new technology is making life a little more friendlier then in the past. One must ask this: "What will happen to all those who still wait for the Sunday paper in their area for the COUPONS?"

[wendy fidler]

I believe technology will not over throw the printed news. One good example is not everyone is technology friendly. Print news can be circulated to a variety of people who do not own computers or the iphones/iclones. Newspapers will be around for a very long time considering the printing press was one of the first means of communication. I can also see how the new technology is making life a little more friendlier then in the past. One must ask this: "What will happen to all those who still wait for the Sunday paper in their area for the COUPONS?"

[Brant Boucher]

I think the newspaper will be around on paper for some time to come. We're going to run out of rare metals needed to make cellphones, etc., long before we run out of wood, cotton, linen, etc. While the 10-15 year window that a recent NEW SCIENTIST article predicted for current mineable supplies is likely to lengthen, and two thirds of the gold ever mined are still in use, we're already running up against peak oil.

I still spend a lot of money on books and magazines -- considering each book costs more than a month of broadband and the magazines are running as high as $13.00 each. I still buy newspapers. For one thing, it's easier to read the comics on paper than to wait while the stuck- in- the- nineties online paper downloads. I haven't bought a cellphone since 1999. Newspapers don't nag you. I wish I had that old cellphone though. It would make a good weapon.

[Richard Brennan]

I am a PGDIP Journalism student at the University of Westminster studying this topic. I found your blog post extremely interesting, and I would like to link to it via a website I am helping create for my course. Obviously, I will not lift any content from your site.

My own views are similar to yours- there will always be people who enjoy reading being able to read a newspaper on their commute and hate reading via a screen for any period of time, but will this market be enough to ensure a newspaper can stay alive? Perhaps the printed newspapers of a decade on will be posted out, as newsagents will require space for electronic items and foodstuffs and feel their sale of newspapers is not cost-effective for them.

[Dorte Toft]

Just to let you know that I - a very old Danish free lance journalist - have blogged about your opinion. And that I have "lifted" your drawing (the venetian screen) to illustrate the development you foresee. Hope it is o.k. Otherwise let me know, and I will remove the drawing immediately.

[Joshua Zambrano]

Nah. Newspapers aren't going anywhere any time soon. For one thing, senior citizens still aren't accustomed to the new technology of computers, and even some baby boomers aren't accustomed to them yet. Until that accustoming happens, there will be a market for newspapers.

But for another thing, a lot of people don't like spending all that much time at a computer screen. It puts pressure on your eyes. And what's more, even if you're one of the select who carries a laptop everywhere, it takes time to load that up and browse to the page you want. It's also bulkier than a newspaper. And yeah, you could read from a phone with internet access, but of course that will be tough to read from.

I just don't see newspapers disappearing any time soon, although I think you make a decent argument for it happening.

[JohnN]

Brilliant article,

I find myself agreeing almost wholeheartedly.

[Phil]

Yet again I need to comment as I catch up!

You need to factor in that printed books haven't been replaced by e-books. Obviously there isn't the worry about it going out of date but in a digital age it speaks volumes and suggests people would rather read yesterdays news for most topics than todays news on a screen, no matter what size.

There may be fewer of them but I doubt you'll get rid of printed news papers for decades unless there is a massive global warming related price hike for paper as an incentive.

[David]

Two things you may be failing to take into account: an unusually large portion of both print and radio media is taken up by unedited, fanciful rubbish whose entire reasons for being is simply to titillate the consumer. I'm talking about tabloids and "talk radio". Beyond that, most so-called "newspapers" seem to have evolved into little more than delivery vehicles for ads scattered among nationally syndicated stories. In my home-town, the big sales pitch behind buying the Sunday newspaper: you get $237.25 of coupons! When you toss out the coupons, classifieds, Real Estate and Apartment sections, what's left is about the same size as a daily paper. And 90% of the stories are IDENTICAL to yesterday's Yahoo! News articles.

The only objection I have to your model is that the newspaper costs $10/mo, whereas (slow) internet connections for cell phones is $30-$90/mo. And don't forget us "Baby Boomers", most of whom will be unable to read ANY cell phone display in ~5 years without reading glasses!

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[smays]

Dear Mr. Adams: Brilliant post. Even if you're wrong (which I don't think you are). I would dearly love to hear your thoughts on The Future of Radio. -- Steve Mays, Jefferson City, MO

[Eoin Brennan]

It's been done - in Earth Final Conflict the major characters had a PDA / communicator which opened exactly as in the illustration.

[Neil]

The "mobiles" in TekWar (the TV series) had a similar device, that you pulled out to the side. It wasn't paper, but sturdy plastic (or whatever stuff was made from in TekWar's exciting view of the future) which allowed for a larger viewing screen - on the show this was used for video calls I think (you need larger video calls when the person who needs to see it is a viewer, not the "person" holding the actual device.

ahem. I also think that if intelligent paper gets cheap/well developed soon, you might buy one from a company that will then let you subscribe to a newspaper's feed. This would download onto the intelligent sheet for you to peruse, as a normal, though lightweight newspaper, until you upload the next days news into it.

[Matt]

They've been talking about the death of newspapers for a long time.

http://paleo-future.blogspot.com/2007/08/electronic-newspaper-1978.html

[emily sonntag]

I'm 25 and like reading our office newspaper sometimes over reading online because it makes me feel quaint. However, no one takes the internet into the bathroom to read, so I usually end up reading the online version anyway to avoid these people's diseases.

[Joey]

The roll out screen! I've been anxiously awaiting that particular dream of mine to become a reality for exactly this reason!

[Boblock]

I invented that. I called it a scrollcase though. Key elements are wifi and a reflective screen flexible enough to roll up. Major external element is pervasive local computing, ie your scroll is a very thin client to a local wifi server.

[Jas]

Please keep in mind the importance of old news. As long as we continue to keep pets (dog, cats, birds, etc.) we will require a steady supply of very large sheets of inexpensive do-do catchers. Lining litter boxes, rodent cages, that special corner of the room for puppy training would never be quite as convenient if we had to use cell phones.

[Jason Dumler]

Here is both a concept device and what a company has managed to manufacture:
http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/gadgets/polymer-vision-screen-thin-as-paper-in-cellphones-someday-161890.php
This has been in a couple of sci-fi shows/movies as well. Just seems like the obvious next step in digital displays.

[skhott]

I don't know Scott - looks like you just moved the turd (newspapers)from one pocket to another.

That digital scroll is a nice idea... I'd pay for a digital scroll on which i can watch movies on the go i.e pull out a nice big 12 inch screen whenever i feel like watching something.

[Alex]

I'll believe it when I see it. For now, newspapers are superior technology. They are light, cheap, easy to read using ambient light, scannable over a whole page, can be crammed into a bag, annotated, torn up and finally used to line the cat's litter tray. Almost everyone I know in the city has access to the internet at work (and that's without paying per-minute charges) but get their quick news fix from the free papers given out on the street.

[Sameer Shisodia]

For a lot many of us, the 'paper' part is still important even though the 'news' is already in your head from the numerous websites you've been killing time on to get news as-it-happens, and 24 hour news channels which more or less 'create' news.

The morning cuppa with the paper spread out and the first rays of the sun streaming in are a lovely few minutes to start the day with - and no laptop/cell can provide the same feel.

Also, you cannot really clean window-panes well with LCD screens :) (yes, newspaper works amazingly well)

[zombie00x]

Your pull out venetian screen is almost available. http://blog.scifi.com/tech/archives/2007/05/24/sony_show_flexi.html

[Craig Cockburn]

Click the link for my name and you'll see I predicted personalised online news in April 1990 before the web was invented. I guess the newspapers have survived this long....

What I want is personalised TV news where it only broadcasts stories I have expressed an interest in, and does not broadcast any areas such as sport that I find deathly boring

[SomeBlondeEngineer]

I was roaming around on the web last night and saw this statement which I thought you would enjoy:

'Some folks just don’t like riding on trains in which the next stop is a brick wall.'

LOL, It gives a very clear visual of some situations.

It is in reference to Britney Spears losing custody of her kids - I'm a mother of 3 little rug monkeys, and had to read why/how she screwed up so bad. Here is the link if you care to know:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21092500/

No need to post in comments - I was just too lazy to look up your email address.

[Rocky]

I just upgraded my phone. That's one.

[kL]

Duh. All phones can have a decent web browser today.

There's Java client that "iphonizes" regular phones (you still have to use buttons of course, but you get full web pages with proper layout, zoom, etc).

http://www.operamini.com/beta/

Here's the link for phoneless people:
http://www.operamini.com/beta/simulator/

(BTW: Opera Mini has 7 times more users than iPhone).

[Ross]

The only time I really want a "paper" newspaper is when I poop. There's just something uncomfortable, not to metion unsanitary, about using a cellphone or laptop while you're on the john. Maybe the demand for papers of this form will go away when we all have little electronic document viewers that fold out from the wall next to the toilet paper holder.

[Tor Magnus]

Here's a couple of points for and against for you:

As brother52 pointed out, whenever I travel to work people try to hand me various free papers at the train/tube/bus station which pretty much has the same rumors in it as the main papers (unfortunately I can't read Dutch so they're no use to me). I think this is where the paper paper is headed, free rags thrown at you at times when you've got nothing else to do but read them.

DF pointed out that people like paper, but is he sure that this is not a generation thing? I'm only at 33 but I've already noticed huge differences in what I like and what kids now like. It's all about what you're getting used to and I think you'll find that newer generations won't have the same penchant for flipping pages.

I believe Scott is right on the money with his little pull-out reader. From what I've seen of this type of technology so far is that they're far superior as a reading surface to a plasma/lcd/oled screen. Great contrast, low to zero power requirement and you can even read it in direct sunlight. I can't believe it's not paper!(tm)

Scott is probably right on the money with his prediction of user contributed, highly structured, moderated news outlets as well. I'm actually surprised that we have not seen this yet. I'd imagine something like Newscorp having a huge daily news database which are presented either in several different sites which specialize in a particular type of content maybe with a pick-and-mix subscription service.

With good integration to an e-reader a good news source could easily replace your daily newspaper, but I'd give it a bit more than two phone replacements before it all comes together (not at least because these e-reader-phone-satnav-camera-game-devices have come on the market).

[Steve]

Old people get the paper for the coupons. You will have to wait for them to die off.

[Avi]

Even if that were to happen, physical newspapers still wouldn't disappear completely.

[Ascii King]

We will have a separate device for reading the newspaper. For a long time now, we could have had our calculators built into our watches. Some people do. Most people, however prefer to separate the functions. They can choose to do this because making a watch and a calculator is pretty cheap. Our current PDA devices are designed to be portable and fully functional. Our newspapers do not need to be as portable or as functional.

I imagine a separate device dedicated to reading your news. It would be about the size of a regular piece of paper, 8 1/2 by 11. It might also be half that size. This device does only a few things. It connects to the web to pull down the news. It might have no ability to send data, it would have no touch screen and it would have only a few buttons. This would keep the price of this device down. The device would be cheap, it would still be portable enough to fit in your briefcase, but have a big enough screen that you could read it comfortably. Those are the three key features of newsprint anyway.

A separate, affordable, dedicated device will be the future of newspapers. The newspapers might give them away for free. That is my prediction.

P.S. Anyone who says they would choose to use newsprint because of nostalgic reasons must still be riding horses instead of using cars.

[brother52]

I don't think we are likely to see physical newspapers becoming redundant as long as we continue to use public transport.

I use public transport a lot and would be reluctant to use a fancy mobile phone such as you describe for one simple reason: I would like to remain in possession of my mobile phone! Reports of people being mugged for a newspaper are fortunately scarce!

Also, if I had to choose between losing a cheap newspaper and an expensive electronic device because I left it on the train, I know which I'd go for...

[Suki the Ocicat]

As a professional printed newspaper-reading researcher, I bet a tenner (10.00GBP) that the paper editions will survive till the end of time.
For my work every weekday morning I open a copy of Lloyd’s List [the biggest maritime newspaper since 1734] and its online edition just cannot replace the pleasure of turning the pages physically – it’s easer for the eyes and quicker to flick through the relevant articles for my research.

Also I am entitled to read the Financial Times, The Guardian, The Times and The Independent for the same reason with extra personal joy.
Workplace newspaper subscription will last as long as we, the professional readers last.

Moreover, the Dilbert-loving UK residents have already mentioned the merit of ‘Metro’ newspaper (free paper distributed to tube [subway]/train stations in the major cities in the UK).

Personally I have swapped Metro with secondhand copies of P G Wodehouse books, though.
:)
Lastly may I point out that printed newspapers are also needed for wrapping fragile stuff for office removal, wet bed of families with kids, and so forth.
Demand and Supply, int’it [Hull dialect]?
QED

[Oli]

E-paper is already around, although in its infancy there was a working demo of it at one of the major technology expo's last year.

While currently only available in black and white it is only a mater of time....

http://ramblingsofanofficeworkler.blogspot.com

[Geoffrey James, Sales Machine]

So true, so true.

The newspaper is destined to disappear just like movies and movie theaters disappeared when television became widespread in the 1950s.

As I recall, that was just about when the airplane eliminated the train as a form of transport and some 75 years after the telephone, widely installed in businesses, eliminated the interoffice memo.

As I sit in my paperless office, I still remember the days when every computer had a printer attached to it. Funny how different things were back then.

[DF]

Isn't this why satellite radio was invented? People wanted uncensored hosts like Howard Stern and uninterupted music and content? They have predicted that magazines would fall by the wayside with the internet too, but that hasnt' happened either. It may become a niche market, with fewer papers being printed for a higher price, but it will be there for a long time to come. Besides, they still have some strides to make when it comes to the battery life of mobile phones. My phone may last a week on battery, but it drops considerable the more I make calls or play games. Consider how much the battery would be used if constantly reading web pages, it would have to be charged daily, which will reduce it lifespan. And do you really want to miss an important call because you killed the battery by reading the paper on your phone for 2 hours in the morning?

[Carolyn]

As a newspaper carrier I have plenty of customers. There is something about reading the newspaper than reading off the internet. Maybe its the pixels. Maybe all users will go blind from all the tiny pixels being read all day long. I honestly dont think its healthy. Sometime the satelites may be blown out the the sky. Then what are all the internet newspaper readers going to do? No internet, no tv's, no radios, no iphones, no ipods, no cell phones. But woohoo, here comes the newspaper carrier. :) And we will be here for a longgggggggggg time to come.

[E]

I doubt newspapers will disappear that fast - I think we underestimate people's resistance to change. I'd imagine the idea of sitting on the buss or with the morning coffee with a cozy newspaper is too well integrated in some people's everyday routines for them to let go of it that fast. Whether these hanger-onners will be enough to keep the industry going, I doubt - they'd probably all convert eventually. But my guess is that the switch-over would take much longer than two cellphone upgrade periods.

[Dom]

I didn't think it was a boring blog. Keep up your stream of unconsciousness, I enjoy it.

[Paul]

I've already got a phone with internet browser and sat nav. The sat nav is very useful but I never use the internet browser. Its too expensive and not as comfortable as reading a newspaper.

I don't believe newspapers will disappear in my lifetime (I'm 30) . The same as people will always prefer to hold a physical book rather than read from a screen, people prefer newspapers.

[Amol]

I tend to agree with you on the concept of e-newspapers. But somehow I don't agree on the time estimates. I feel it will still take a generation or two before newspapers are available only and only electronically.

Though the kind of model of electronic news you have described is possible even today, I guess it would be the second step. The first step is already happening. The paper edition of the newspaper is available in the same format (as if you have it in your hand) on the internet.

Check out:
http://timesonline.newspaperdirect.com/epaper/viewer.aspx
or
http://epaper.timesofindia.com

I come from India and when I am traveling out of India, I still like to read the e-paper and also surf the website of the Times of India. I never buy a newspaper when I am out of India. But when I am back in India, I rather buy a copy than to check it out on the internet.

[Angela]

One thing that would help that along would be the upgrading of mobile phone services to ensure reception on widely used public transportation systems. On the tube in London one doesn't have reception underground. And when i was deciding whether to get the print or soft copy version of The Economist that was a big factor for me because I like to read it over several days on the underground and I see hundreds of others who, like me have to put their blackberries away and they usually turn to a newspaper. A free one I grant you, but the printed page nonetheless.

[Aardwizz]

Your picture shows the "paper" coming off to the left. Your right hand, still holding the phone, is used to scroll and command.

I'm left-handed, and I hope they make a lefty version. Thank Myself that I don't have buy a left-handed newspaper.

©¿©¬

[Cristen]

In agreement with a previous poster, "counterpoints to everything" is not a helpful way of delivering the news. As you mentioned yesterday, everyone's perception is different, and there needs to be consistency of voice to be able to understand a particular paradigm. Not that counter-arguments should never be referenced, but rather there needs to be an over-riding opinion in each publication. Then rival publications can represent opposing views.

In politics it is vital to have an opposition party to raise the other point of view; it's not enough for one party to claim that they can see all points of view. I think the same is true of the media.

[Harry]

"..and the stuff unsubstantiated by facts"

In the UK every single item in the printed press is either "unsubstantiated by facts" or made up, and I mean everything, including the date.

We have had 3G phones for a while, the iPhone is not even 3G, it uses Edge which is a step backward in technology. Newspapers have nothing to fear from the fruit munchers and their naff phones

http://www.thebestpageintheuniverse.net/c.cgi?u=iphone

Newsprint has one use that is difficult to replace with an electrical communictations device. After using the toilet, you could, in theory put the iPhone to its best use and wipe up...

(I think we all know where I am going with this)

[Freda Ho]

Why do you Americans still need 2 upgrades on average for everyone to have web broswer enabled phones?

We ALL have it in Hong Kong/Japan/Korea etc!

And the printed media is still alive! After the prediction of death of printed books with emergence of e-book, I can't believe you have to embarrass yourself with exactly the same thing. Something more innovative please!

And for my university project, we actually prepared a very detailed business plan on the use of e-paper (a type of filmsy screen which can only display black and white prints) as newspaper. I am pretty sure that development of color display of that thickness will be quite far down the road...

Actually I don't think it is hard for Americans to predict the technological future/evolution... just look at Japan and you can see 3 to 5 years ahead already :P

[Mark Harrison]

"The iPhone, and its inevitable copycats, (let’s call them iClones) are newspaper killers. When you have a web browser in your pocket, a printed newspaper is redundant."

I'm very impressed. I laught at all those Elbonian manufacturers who take weeks to clone technology.

Here in Europe, our technology copying ability is so advanced we managed to create an "iPhone copycat" years BEFORE it was released.

I'm not denying the iPhone is a nice piece of kit, but on this side of the Atlantic, we're having trouble working out where the "revolution" part of it is.

But that's OK, those of you who live in the States can think of what we do as "cloning" your good old USA products if you want :-)

[gordon_goosemonster]

How a about a contact lense that projects a HUD. Coupled with a ear implan. Both conected via bluetooth to your mobile phone keypad type thing.
Then you could sit in meetings watching porn and shitting your pants.

[donal.W]

Two reasons why I disagree.
Firstly I think that a good newspaper or magazine is so because it has good editorial controlling the content which it originates from internal sources. A bit like the arguement of do you prefere CD music from an artist or compilation albums. Internet content is like listening to someones elses compilation albums which a certain % of the population will never go for. (Basically we all like our individual coloring of our world and internet news is to generic).

Secondly there is a certain pleasure in browsing your favorite rag mag while warming the toilet seat or winding down on the sofa at night or lying in bed. I can't see this pleasure every being replaced by cell phone or computer screen.. Not as long as I am married anyway! Computer in Bed, forget it.

[Arturo]

For somebody who claims to always see all sides of a situation, you really seem to have missed this one.

a) No matter how tight you roll it, a screen isn't going to fit inside something the size of a Motorola RAZR.

b) The most popular newspapers around here are the free ones which you pick off a table on the way into the underground. They also leave them in other places...cafes, bars, etc. They're not big, important newspapers, they're the newspapers of the people.

What makes these newspapers so desirable is that there's never enough for everybody. Ownership of a newspaper, even if you never read it, is a status symbol (in fact not reading it probably makes the non-owners even madder).

c) Newspapers may be an obsolete concept to a syndicated cartoonist but there's always a segment of the population who simply can't learn to use electronic gadgets. These are the people whose VCRs have been flashing "12:00" since the day they bought them (there's probably a cartoon there somewhere...)

[Chris Marr]

http://www.polymervision.com/ProductsApplications/Vision/Index.html

These people have been working on this idea since around 2002. It's about time it took off, I want my roll out, user friendly, internet mobile phone browser dammit!

[Ian Edwards]

Moblie 'phones are going to have to get a whole lot tougher before you can swat a fly with one!

[Jim]

In the UK free newspapers, provided to commuters at public transport hubs and to shoppers in streets/malls are beginning to dominate. They're free, easy to find, easy to read (I read all the sports, news and comics's in my 25 min train ride to work) & usually lack editorial spin/bias. I think they are great and I wouldn't swap mine for a screen. At lunch I read a series newspaper online.

Maybe free papers would not work in the US as most of you are surgically attached to your car anyway.

[Little me]

Isn't web browsers on phones kindof standard already (and several years ago)? Can you even buy a phone without a browser nowdays? Ok, perhaps in the "evolving" markets...

So no, no electronic device will replace the paper copy for at least 20 years. Take my word as an anonymous internet guy.

[Rex & Julie]

Why can't phones act like mini-projectors, so you have a monitor wherever you are? All you need is something to project on - a light-coloured wall for example.

I would rush to the patent office if I didn't think this idea hadn't been thought of many times.

[water_moon]

Why newspapers when you can get the stories stright from AP? Local news will be about all there is.

[Gauss]

Hi,

I think a lot of these ideas are right on. In fact, a buddy and I are busy building a newspaper platform that implements many of these ideas. A few months ago we launched the 1.0 version of this free news publishing service called "Public Press" (http://www.publicpress.org). Our hope is that this service creates tighter knit communities by giving people the tools to be citizen journalists. We have zero funding and receive no money for our efforts. I'm hoping the service grows so it can finance itself and allow us to work full-time on perfecting this "Newspaper of the 21st century". Thanks for writing about these ideas Scott, as it helps raise awareness for citizen journalists. If you get a chance, please check it out and let us know what you think. We'll be launching a 2.0 version in about a week that adds a collaborative editing process and lets neighborhoods create social networks. Thanks.

[MarkM]

Futurists always predict that the future will arrive sooner than it actually does. Perhaps it's in their nature. I don't doubt that newspapers will become infeasible to print, but it won't happen until people stop buying and reading them. This will happen LONG after the technology is in place that allows access to the same type of information without the expense of printing and distributing newspapers.

Newspapers will last for nearly as long as the baby-boomers are still alive to read them. Boomers tend to adopt technology when it's necessary and don't care much for the gee-whiz technology. Most news print will die with the boomers.

Many "newspaper" companies will change their model and publish their newspapers in electronic form and will be transmitted directly to your electro-paper rather than to your doorstep. This will allow you to browse local content - whether you knew it would be relevent or not. These companies will not die, but will adapt to the new distribution model. Why won't they die? Because consumers will still want professionally written articles from trusted sources.

[Kevin Kunreuther]

Scott Adams:[And local news will come from hometown bloggers who self-syndicate to all of the newspapers.]

In Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, there is the online Pegasus News (http://www.pegasusnews.com/), news customized by bloggers, regular contributors, subscribers and news services. A top popular website among Dallasites who own an iPhone.

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[Nikolaus]

Check this out. It's pretty similar to your taking material from lots of different bloggers idea, but in a sweet video format.
http://www.robinsloan.com/epic/

[Lymonhead]

I disagree on the 2 cell phone demise theory. Primarily because the writing that is done on the Internet and NOT printed is of much lesser quality than that which is in traditional media. The traditional writing can also be read on the Internet, but only if ones wades through the piles of bad grammar and unsupported claims on the Net. Anyway, I would bet 2 copies that after 4 years (which is the time it takes someone to get 2 new cell phones), there will be at least 3 newspaper companies still providing printed matter nationally - something like USA Today, Washington Post, and the New York Times, and most major cities will have at least 1/2 of their primary important papers at that time. Newspapers will evolve, to be sure, but some will become more intellectual (see New Yorker - a magazine before its time) while others will remain more sensational (see USA Today). Geeks will still abound who want to read something in their hands with actual literary value and so will people eating lunch in the cafeteria of their cubicle jungles trying to escape the monotony of corporate hell for at least 10 minutes before someone asks him how long until the company goes under again.

[Sando]

Brilliant!!

[Acactalepteron]

The "venetian screen" you mentioned has been in development for several years. I'm a junior physics student at the University of Iowa, and a friend of mine works in a lab developing just a device. It's a "polymer sandwich that uses an electric field to reorient charged particles" or: two sheets of transparent plastic with colored particles in between them. By rotating these particles, one can control whether or not they're visible. So far it can only display in one color, but full color is definitely coming.

[Acactalepteron]

The "venetian screen" you mentioned has been in development for several years. I'm a junior physics student at the University of Iowa, and a friend of mine works in a lab developing just a device. It's a "polymer sandwich that uses an electric field to reorient charged particles" or: two sheets of transparent plastic with colored particles in between them. By rotating these particles, one can control whether or not they're visible. So far it can only display in one color, but full color is definitely coming.

[Mason]

Candice if you think that the blog is boring then please stop posting. It is obvious that by your previouse posts that you only enjoy topics that relate to you, or social issues that involve people. If you open your mind more, then the world can be a very interesting place

[Dan See]

You paint a pretty picture, Scott, but I can't see all that happening anytime soon.

Someone has already thought of the Venetian screen. It was in Popular Science.

[Shmendrick the Magician]

That would be awesome, 'cept I don't have a cell phone, and can't imagine getting one soon.

[himanshu]

on the other hand, newspapers could outlive cellphones...

cellphones will disappear once you have those communicator chips embedded in your head. but nothing can give the great feeling that comes from having a fresh newspaper early in the morning in your hands and a nice cup of tea.

[Boris]

Interesting (ahem) comparison by Dan B. There are some people you'll never persuade to give up newspapers, just as there are some people you'll never persuade to give up being racist? These people just have to die out? Talk about comparing apples and oranges.

I think if you're talking about the US, though, the prediction of another couple of cell phone innovations is fairly plausible, although some people may resist being forced into accepting gee whiz electronic technology that they don't actually want. I'm 50, and have gotten used to getting almost all of my news from the Internet. We get a local newspaper delivered to my workplace, and I take a glance if I happen to think of it. When traveling, I sometimes like to buy a local paper just to get the local flavor.

I'm sure that newspapers will continue for many years in less technologically dominated societies.

And somehow, it's hard to imagine Wally headed to the men's room with his cellphone tucked under his arm.

[Johan Hjelm]

This has not happened because the newspapers suffer from a "sunk cost" fallacy - they have invested all these millions in the printing press and the infrastructure feeding it, and now they have to amortize it.... the editors (and cartoons) are just the scum on top in the beancounters eyes. And they make the decisions.
That said, why hasn't this happened already, as all the technology is there (yes, even the cellphones - but here in Japan, people read more newspapers than anywhere except Norway, despite us being world leaders in fantastic cell phones). Probably because the Interent presents a model where the value to the reader is bigger than in the model you describe, Scott. I.e. it is too easy to find something on Google than to bother looking for a centralized site. Hence, you have social voting, but not editiorially controlled content...
An alternative is of course shorter print runs and individualized printing. A print run of one would satisfy both models. That has also been tried, but so far unsuccessfully - mostly because the third big part of the newspaper, the advertising salesmen, do not understand how to manage it (if someone is scared shitless of the Internet, it is those guys).
I do not believe newspapers will go away as long as people want something to read on the toilet (try a laptop in there, especially if you have run out of paper). But then, if they are individualized, you have no guarantee of them printing your cartoons....

//Johan

[jeff]

i think most of the younger generation are too self-absorbed to read the news. unless it contains something to do with paris or britney going pant-less.

Or too stupid. at least from the view from the front porch of the dates my offspring brings home

%^)

[jeff]

interesting.

if the news media was actually published based on "social voting", wouldn't that mean that the "news" that most people wanted to read would be the news. doesn't that tie somehow into your post from yesterday. i'd try and connect the dots but i'm already on my 3rd rye of the night.

cheers!

[jeff]

how will i start my fireplace?

[Talat]

As regards your remark about blogs being ranked and gathered by newspapers, have you heard of recently launched socialrank.com? I think it is already happening. Have a look at this:
http://socialrank.com/20/30-new-socialrank-powered-blog-portals-to-launch-on-oct-1/

[Billy B]

"I predict that the end of printed newspapers will happen in the time it takes for most people to upgrade their cell phones two more times."

I can't agree with that, there is just something about the warmth of holding a printed page, as I pointed out to my students when I taught a computer class when I encouraged them to buy books on how to use their computers.

That isn't the same as newspapers but I think that they will be around for some time yet, even the youth pick up and read things.

And I don't expect radio or TV to die for some time yet. They are also useful mediums that serve us in ways that we like to be served.

They may evolve and change, but they will still be here for some time. Do you want to watch a Utube video on a cell phone or a 54" screen? Case closed.
Billy B

[Justin Newman]

"What I’d like to see is a newspaper that is a hybrid of social voting, such as you see on web sites like www.reddit.com and www.digg.com, but further filtered by human editors who weed out the redundant, the juvenile, and the stuff unsubstantiated by facts."

Have you read Slashdot? It has a lot of what you mentioned and it's been around since 1997. Stories are user submitted and editors sort through them and post certain ones, sometimes adding their own comments. Comments tend to offer a wide range of informed opinions and are very well moderated. The only difference I see is that no voting goes on, except in Slashdot polls.

[Nomi]

Oh, I just hope you're wrong again.

[nickman]

that i have to doubt. come on, the iphones might be revelant today, but lets face it, many people do not want their phones to do anything more then be a phone. im 24 and i carry around a moleskin, because it wont break, i can throw it on the ground when i get angry, it can get wet and recover for another days use. the newspaper is here to stay, you forget that people like to read the paper in there house, you forget that the local paper has a life, people wont go online to check the local news, they will always check the world news online, or sites like reddit and digg will become the new portal for news. anyhow enough of this rant, i think that the newspaper will eventually be phased out but not for a 50 years and thats being liberal, a more conservative estimate would be 200 years before they are gone.

[JFS in IL]

I can read the printed page (skimming mostly, as that is all it takes to swallow and digest the written word) and get through the Chicago Tribune and Wall St. Journal must faster than my 'puter can load the same material. Toast crumbs can be brushed off the newspaper easier than the keyboard, too. As for reading off a cell phone...I am going blind and getting irritated just thinking about it!!!! Too sloooow!

Don't have a cell phone, anyway ;-)

JFS in IL
48 yr-old newspaper-reading geek.

[Jacqueline]

I've got to say I'm beginning to agree with you, Scott, on the death of the traditional newspaper. People can get everything from the internet (yes, including coupons - try sites like couponlooker or Judysbook.com) Although the current smart phones and pdas are not that easy to read or type on now, I'd be willing to bet that the technology will improve by leaps and bounds.

In the interest of giving my thoughts some context, I'm 24 and have never purchased a newspaper, and a quick survey of my similar-aged friends via gmail chat revealed that they haven't either (obviously this is not scientific at all). We can get everything we need, from comics to classified to breaking news online.

You can check out the blog linked in my name for more information and my thoughts on the future of journalism (and for those readers who are the intrepid, innovative media types, you can learn about the Knight News Challenge as well).

[CH]

If there are no newspapers, what will people stuff in their clothes to keep warm?

[Ed]

However, it costs money to browse the internet on one's mobile phone, where as newspapers are far cheaper. Many people also like having something that is tangible, such as buying CDs over downloading the mp3s.

Also if your idea where true then shouldn't this mean that people wouldn't buy Dilbert books, as one can get them online for free?

[MWL]

I want one.

[Cassandra]

You should meet the guy who invented "gyricon". He's an engineer for Xerox, or was when I heard him speak. And he is so totally Dilbert, it should make you proud that your caricature is so dead-on. He should play Dilbert in The Dilbert Movie, if it is live action.

He is such a geek he named his digital paper "gyricon" instead of something catchy and I'm sure that's why you've never heard of it. Also, he seems to be a wage-slave despite his shrewd and subtle understanding of materials and how to get stuff done.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gyricon

[Juliewman]

Gosh, are there no parents with kids playing organized high school sports on this site? A local newspaper is the only place you will find coverage of your son or daughter's big game. Your child will want to cut out the story and picture to hang on their wall. You will buy multiple copies of the day's paper just so you can mail off the article to the grandparents.

Technology may allow us to access national and international news faster and easier, but there will always be a place for the home-town newspaper.

[Dan Bularzik]

You included the "And I’d like to see counterpoints to everything" line just to tweak people like me, didn't you? The "some say the world is round, others say it's flat, so obviously the truth is somewhere in between" faux-"balance" that's permeated journalism today is simple laziness on the part of news organizations that many have learned to exploit. Often, the result is as bad as cases where valid point of views are repressed.

Also, I'd like to point out how computers were supposed to result in a paperless office...which I expect to actually see at about the same time that the print newspaper actually goes away.

[Jen]

In the time it takes us to upgrade our cell phones two more times? What is that, four years, give or take about two years?

Newspapers will exist at least as long as the generations older than I am (35) are alive. My father and grandfather will never stop subscribing to a newspaper.

I myself will never subscribe because I read my news at my local newspaper's web site. (Which I presume is wildly profitable, given all the ads.) OK, and via Google news, etc., sites which link to newspaper web sites. So the newspaper companies themselves aren't going out of business any time soon. They'll probably "always" provide some kind of printed supplement for the niche of people who like to read on paper rather than on screen, and I know a lot of those types.

Like they thought libraries would be gone by now. I am *never* going to try to read an e-book again. Painful. We Like Our Books.

Regarding printed news: this is definitely a generational thing. There are people you'll never convince to read their news online, just like there are people who you'll never convince to not be racist, etc. Those folks just have to die out.

[Pete]

The venetian screen will be too flimsy. However, some of the comments about the type of content newspapers are going to be filled with echoed changes in radio and TV reporting. The fact based piece is being replaced by emotive "this is how it felt to me", subjective reporting. It's depressing.

That word, Subjective, captures it all.

I don't want to be told how to feel about something, I can make my own mind up on that. We are increasingly at the mercy of the prejudices of the broadcaster/journalist/blogger. The Lombergs of the world are dismissed and miss-represented every day. The world you anticipate is even worse - the figleaf of professionalism, barely hiding the emotional blackmail at present, is being dropped entirely.

Will the unfashionable opinion even get a look-in when the adaptation is complete? And what about people with the power (money) to mainpulate what people read? People might complain about the Murdochs of this wold now, but how much worse will they be when objectivity is abandoned.

In the UK there is a particular mindset in much of the BBC broadcast output in news and current affairs. The whole corporation is riddled with a staggering degree of bias because they only employ people with the apropriate opinions. They only advertise jobs in one newspaper that shares that bias. Some of their output is bizarre, but they can't see it.

I read my news on-line. I like the convenience of being able to read the paper without having to go out and buy it. (Yeah, I know, I could get it delivered, but I work away from home a lot, so I don't.) I still buy the same newspapers I read on-line. I will continue to do so, I understand that it helps to pay for the on-line convenience.

I don't buy my books or music from Amazon. I don't shop on-line. I go to a "shop". I like seeing and touching what I'm going to buy. I'm not usually home to take delivery. I don't want to wait for delivery, when I see something I want, I want it now.

Newspapers have never been good businesses to invest in (they print factual innacuracies and get sued). They have always been about the ego of the proprietor and or the editor. There will always be enough rich arogant people to support them and get their opinions heard. There may not be as many in the future, but they will not die out. The online edition is another wya of seeing the news. Never a substitute for it.

[Jackie]

If you read : It's Not News It's Fark: How Mass Media Tries to Pass Off Crap as News ( Drew Curtis) -- you will see his well researched thoughts on this. Newspaper can not survive - the internet allows for ad hits and conversion rates to be measured -- something print can not do with proof. Without advertisers there is no revenue to keep the papers in print. Your point that local bloggers or smart local news agencies who have an online presence will be the news source for the masses. Certainly the up and coming generations (anyone under 30) are not newspaper subscribers.

[Tristan]

So long as mobile phone companies continue to charge so much for internet access that it's cheaper to buy a newspaper than to look at 2-3 articles over the phone, I don't see phonepapering becoming popular at all. And I don't see mobile phone companies in any hurry to change.

[Candice]

What a boring blog.

[D. Mented]

I would have mentioned something about a bigger screen if you hadn't - I can even read that tiny print, but I don't like to, and many people over thirty can't really read it. Of course, what passes for news on the internet these days is mostly so over-edited to fit into barely-more-than-a-headline format that I don't waste my time with it, but if people want in-depth news, it will appear.
I'm with the contingent that says newspapers will still be around for the boomers, but that will be in a smaller, probably more local, format. Might even produce a renaissance of investigative reporting as the big money moves into the ether, although that might be too much to hope for.
D. Mented

[Marco]

Camping will suck in 2 cell phone generations. How am I supposed to sing Kumbaya if I can't light the fire??

[Chubby Mike]

I agree with you that the next generations of cell phones will soon be the default mechanism for how most younger people get their information. However I feel that newspapers will still have a niche in society for those older people who have always gotten their news that way. This would be similar to how Network news still survives (not as well) even in the face of the internet and 24 hour Cable shows.

[JaniceG]

I got my journalism degree in 1976 -- people were predicting the demise of printed newspapers back then, too, even before the explosion of the Internet. Despite my love affair with newspapers, I do get most of my news now on the Internet or international news coverage on television. (I moved to Australia two years ago and TV news here actually covers news rather than just Britney/TomKat/Lindsay :-> )

However, I also still get a printed newspaper. While coupons, as others have noted, are nice, it's not my primary reason: the problem with reading the news online or subscribing to RSS feeds and the like is that the news is then filtered. One of the great things about reading a newspaper is that I am always serendipitously spotting a story that I would not necessarily have subscribed to reading online but that I find interesting/informative.

I also ditto the person who mentioned bad cell reception contributing to his reading a newspaper on the train. If public transport in the US ever becomes more ubiquitous due to fuel shortages, I think paper newspapers will see a resurgence.

[Dan]

Propeller has a social news feed voting model with editors like what you describe. See http://www.propeller.com/

[Farmer Beavis]

I would like to recommend the works of Neal Stephenson, esp. the Young Ladies Illustrated Primer.

[Lisa]

This post reminded me of a video that went around a little while back about the death of The New York Times. Complete farse, but I wouldn't be surprised with today's technology developments that something like this isn't too far off.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fUHtc37MC8

[Tedd]

As I post this, no comments regarding the subject are up yet (there may be some predating it pending approval). What about webcomics? That's basically cartoonist using the internet for self-syndication. A lot of the stuff out there is done as a hobby, but there are plenty of very successful webcomics online right now.
With webcomics, there's no need to convince a syndicate to pick the comic up in the beginning, because its almost completely free to publish. It's a very different environment that the comic develops in, so it can gain a fan base while growing and evolving to appeal to the fan base. Because webcomics are self published and often aimed at a particular niche market, they can get away with whatever the cartoonist feels like. I'd say one of the best example of a professional webcomic is UserFriendly.org, a 10 year old webcomic that's been running long enough to be syndicated in print as well. Sometimes I've heard it called a geek version of Dilbert with some Doonesbury mixed in, which I suppose is partially true in that it's about a employees at an ISP an current events in technology. But it gets pretty different from there. The unsupervised format of a webcomic means that if the author feels like doing an extended series of strips about a relationship between two characters that might be taboo in a newspaper, hey, there's no one but the fanbase to tell him what to do.

The biggest criticism of webcomics I've heard is that most of them suck. And my experience is that a lot, if not most, of all webcomics don't really get that far. I best heard this described by Spike, author of Templar, Arizona, in this podcast, who said that the majority of webcomics are hobby comics, not professional comics. As a webcartoonist myself, I endeavor to do my strip as professionally as possible. I'm probably still on the hobby side of things, but I'm working on it. But look at thewebcomiclist.com, where I list my comic, and you'll see a huge pile of comic strips, close to 10000. Of those, I regularly read about five, well done, professionally produced comics. I Where are they though? They're all over the rankings, which doesn't make a heck of a lot of sense until you consider the nature of a webcomic directory. Because so many of them, even the professional ones, are targeted at a niche audience, there's no way to have a single directory, or reddit/digg style environment, designed for popular consumption.

So that's how comics made the jump to the internet. And it works well, because comics that a niche audience appreciates tend to interlink and share an audience, often through Collectives like Dumbrella and Dayfree Press. The problem is that just because the technology is there, the mainstream media can't just transition to this format. If journalism follows the path of cartooning (which it already is), you couldn't have a single, central newspaper anymore. There would be less of this idea of a single newspaper with a mashup of everything and more of targeted audience sites. Consider it more of a "make your own newspaper" deal, where a person would choose a couple of specialized sources and have them all come into his phone newspaper with RSS. Instead of paying for a whole New York Times, a person might just subscribe to one of their columnists (who might end articles with links to related columnists). A geek might throw in a feed from Wired, or a financial professional might subscribe to a feed from Wall Street Journal. And here's the coolest part-- we already do this! All that we need is that Venetian Screen of yours and a cheap way for everyday people to get it (currently the phone cos are crazy overcharging for mobile internet) and a simple way for technologically declined people to use it, and you've just replaced the newspaper.
One last remark on keeping it professional. You've also just made the news free. Webcartoonist have been trying to do stuff with Premium Content for about as long as I can trace the medium. It's never all that successful, even for the most successful ones. And if you look at the syndicated cartoonists, well, you don't need to pay for that anymore, since UFS tends to archive the last month of strips for free. While possible to charge for access to these kind of feeds with some sort of device specific DRM, I doubt that this kind of thing is feasible. Webcomics are most often supported by merchandise and advertising, existing RSS news is supported by advertising, and the only time I've ever seen paying for subscriptions really take off is when the paid subscriber gets no ads, thereby replacing, not adding to, the advert revenue.

[QwkDrw]

(Disclaimer: This comment was written entirely without the benefit of first reading any other comments. The content may or may not reflect agreement or disagreement with other comments.)

Mr. Adams -- That was a very well thought out opinion with many good supporting examples. Still, it was a long to go just to justify a way that a "Dilbert" character can use the word "Turd".

[Lisa]

This post reminded me of the following video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fUHtc37MC8

With the way tech is going these days, it's probably not too far from becoming true.

[Justin Fabian]

"And I’d like to see counterpoints to everything. This way you’d get the stories and opinions considered most worthy by the public, with some editorial quality control."

It's not often that I paraphrase Luis Black, especially from his rants in movies, but here's where I disagree.

On 24 hour news channels they always have a person with a normal view and a counter to that view. Maybe they have a person on saying that the holocaust didn't exist, and obviously somebody on saying that it did. They both get an equal amount of air time to be fair, but they both don't represent an equal amount of the public opinion. That is to say there are a lot more people that believe the holocaust happened than believe that it was a farce, but they are both represented on the program as if they do represent equal parts of the population.

If a newspaper had to put in a counterpoint it would give it equal weight when there are some stories out there that really are one sided.

There's all sorts of ways to slant the news, deciding what stories to run and the prominence of those stories are a couple ways of doing that. But I would much rather have a publication that is either conservative or liberal and they stick to that ideology. If I want a liberal paper I'll read the Washington Post, if I want an opposing view point, I don't want to see it in the post, I want to read it in another paper that has a different ideology.

An easy way to manipulate an argument is to present the opposing side first but make it sound extremely weak.

In your idea of newspapers this may not happen intentionally, but it would definitely happen.

That was an awful lot of typing for a rather small point.

[Ian]

The Nazis thought it would be a good idea to change the newspapers too - is that what you are? A Nazi?? I KNEW you were anti-Semitic.

DMD

[g]

Hey Scott,

A few years back actually, one of apple's concept model's for the new ipod/iphone was pretty much an exact copy of your "venetian screen."

--Just thought I'd let you know--

[lee]

You have now intrigued me. Not about the newspaper comment, but the cartoons without the G rating. Can we have a sample of Scott Adams "unrated and unleashed". Hope to see it in the bookstore soon.

[Jennifer]

Newspapers will live at least until the Baby Boomers die. Some of them are damn happy with the level of phone functionality they have now, just like my great-aunt (who was of the prior generation) shunned microwaves and touchtone phones.

[DWH]

Just watch the movie Minority Report to see the future of paperless newspapers and advertising gone crazy.In the scene on the subway a passenger has a "newspaper", that is like the screen you wrote about, that updated with the news item about the main character in the movie being a wanted man.

[Ras Ford]

Interesting post today Scott. Pity I was "working" all day and didn't get to log on earlier. I worked for a newspaper company once in Tech Support and feared that some people's jobs would become obsolete (read press room staff) when the newspaper as we know it dies. I had come up with a similar concept that is the engine of today's post. In my concept though, I figured the device to be about a tad bit larger than a Blackberry. The user would be able to adjust font sizes and so on with just a click.

When I presented my "sky is falling" theory to a middle manager (read PHB) he assured me with a guffaw that would never happen. Apparently there exists some law (this is in a "third world" Caribbean country) that practically ensures that newspapers will never die. It is apparently necessary to place notices of a certain nature in PRINT... real paper - not electronically. For example divorce proceedings, application for citizenship, annulment of citizenship, crap like that. It appears that this is a vestige of some archaic British law. Not sure if it is so in Uncle Sam's country but that's what I was told by PHB.

Finally, when I was just a tot going to high school in the eighties (alright not really a tot), I was told that the paperless office would come on stream in the nineties. I was also told by the yr 2000, jet packs would be the preferred mode of transportation... I could go on and on... You better make as much moolah as you can from Dilbert and run to the hills! Oh shit - you already did...

OK, I stopped reading at this bit:

"Your phone would still have a regular screen for mos