Israel Defeats the Entire Middle East
Yesterday I had one of those oh-my-God moments, the kind where I thought I could see the future. It started by reading some articles about the lack of a serious energy policy in the United States. The problem is that our politicians believe, probably correctly, that they can’t get elected if they propose an energy policy that could work.
Then I stumbled across an article about two Israeli companies that have allegedly made huge breakthroughs in solar power. As with all of these breakthrough stories, you have to assume they are more hype than substance, but take a look:
http://nextbigfuture.com/2008/04/solar-power-breakthroughs-sunrgi-7.html
The oh-my-God moment came when I realized that Israel can destroy all of its local enemies by inventing solar technology that makes oil uneconomical. Such an invention would do more harm than any military attack. And it’s all legal and moral. The politicians and business people in Israel have all the right incentives times a thousand. Their very survival is at risk. Israel is one patent away from crushing every oil producing country in the world.
So that’s my prediction. Whether these latest announcements are real or hype, I think Israel will eventually create the technology to make oil irrelevant to energy production.
Try thinking about this one too. If I posted an anti Israeli message here, you'd not approve it thinking I'm racist. But if I post an anti American government or anti arabic message, you'll not think twice before approving it. Talk about double standards.
Have you ever thought about it?
Posted by: Ozz | May 08, 2008 at 04:48 AM
It's sounds so much like them.
Posted by: Ozz | May 08, 2008 at 04:44 AM
I posited something very similar in a Greenpunk sci-fi story I'm writing serial style on the web (www.greenpunk.org), but I have Iran withdrawing from OPEC and using a "Bushehr nuclear reactor farm" to do so.
Posted by: Wm | May 07, 2008 at 10:59 AM
I think think the progress of solar panels is very over hyped.
But I don't think this will effect a lot of there enemieslets have a look.
-Palestinians, they have absolutely no oil so it won'y effect them
-Jordan, No oil but there economy is growing and will probably become a somewhat rich country in the not-so-distant-future.
-UAE, They have a lot of oil and make a lot of money from it but there government has made a lot of progress and the country isn't really oil dependant anymore (this is true for most gulf states except saudi arabia)
Posted by: Yo mamma | May 03, 2008 at 08:58 AM
Actually if you look a little closer you will notice not many of Israel's current or historical enemies are really sitting on much oil. Hamas isn't, Syria isn't, Egypt isn't, Hezbollah isn't. The real people getting rich on oil (mostly Saudis) have done little to really hurt Israel. Iran might be an exception to the extent they would have to reduce help to Hezbollah, but that might not be as much as you might think, it isn't like Iran as nothing at all but oil and Katushyas are not that costly.
Posted by: David | May 02, 2008 at 12:57 PM
"Conspiracy freaks??? ummm, sorry to burst your bubble, but in all seriousness this is the blog of a comic strip artist... Posted by: reality"
One which you obviously haven't read much mate :) We get a lot of contentious debate on here, some of it on political topics, and no mistake.
Oh and incidentally - gas in the UK has passed the US$10 a gallon mark.
I'm driving one hell of a lot slower now.
Posted by: Andy Watt | May 02, 2008 at 07:31 AM
Sorry to have left off the French - I know you guys are touchy about being the different-language speaking step-kids.
So it was only the British and the French? while US had no input at all...hard to believe - especially after we just saved them (Europe) from themselves in WW1.
Conspiracy freaks??? ummm, sorry to burst your bubble, but in all seriousness this is the blog of a comic strip artist...
Posted by: reality | May 02, 2008 at 06:47 AM
I was in Tel Aviv this week with some colleagues and the first thing we noticed was that nearly every building in the city had solar panels on the roof. That, and the gas prices were pretty obscene. 7.5 NIS/liter = 8.3 USD/gallon
Posted by: cmo | May 02, 2008 at 06:44 AM
Has the line "then let them eat their sand" been used yet?
If not, then I'm claiming first!!!
http://boskolives.wordpress.com/
Posted by: jerry w. | May 02, 2008 at 06:32 AM
(Sur)reality, it was Britain and France that carved up the middle East at the end of WW1, not Britain and the US. Try googling "Sykes Pekoe".
Posted by: Simon Jester | May 02, 2008 at 04:40 AM
"No Oil, No Israel. Period."
Mr Adams, are you trying to draw out these conspiracy freaks or what?
Once again, a bunch of endpoints put together to infer the original intention. Israel exists because the UN decided it would be prudent to be nice to a bunch of people Hitler wanted to eradicate by allowing them to fulfil some passages in ancient bloody books and plonk their lilywhite (often american) arses in the middle of a desert (where they obviously belong).
Destiny this is not. You could argue that the religious context is nice and convenient as a way to cover up The Smoking Man's agenda, but to be honest I simply don't believe governments are clever or organised enough to put this stuff together.
As I mentioned earlier, this tech might do very well to give us cheaper electricity (it could generate hydrogen, I guess, but that's a whole other emerging technology) but ultimately, as with wind power, what do you do when the sun goes in (the wind drops)?
We're going nuclear on a planetary scale people, as a species we just don't have 1) the mental capacity or will to come up with a better way or 2) a choice
It's either that or recognise that it's time we shrank as a global population - fat chance.
Posted by: Andy Watt | May 02, 2008 at 01:27 AM
If you enjoy amusing yourself with this sort of masturbatory fantasies about magic bullet solutions to high oil prices, check out this site:
http://www.nextenergynews.com/
They solve the energy crisis five times every day. It's funny how there are 1000 sites that pick up some bogus story with the line "I don't know if this is true, but if it is...." and approximately zero sites that analyze whether it really is true. One thing I do know is that approximately 1000 "invention X to provide cheap clean power" stories haven't affected the future prices of oil!
When I read "Oil futures drop on news of invention X", THEN I'll start talking about the demise of oil-rich countries.
Also, nuclear and coal power are already a cheaper way to generate electricity than oil. The chance that these fantasies will lower the price of electricity? Slim to none. Cheap, clean electricity production already exists, especially in France and Sweden. It's called nuclear power.
If the Israelis really want to lower the price of oil, they should build a better battery.
-Mercy
Posted by: Mr. Mercy Vetsel | May 01, 2008 at 08:26 PM
Israel develop kick-arse solar technology? - only if Bush and his oil buddies let them.
if i was an Israeli scientist working on this, i'd be watching over my shoulder for both arab and US assassins
Posted by: Nicki Lagrange | May 01, 2008 at 08:00 PM
I wish the Israelis well. More efficient photovoltaic generation is one of the future forms of solar energy that will positively affect the cost of power picture. The technology has been around for awhile. But there have been a host of problems with every claim to cheap solar power.
Any genetic engineering is fraught with dangers that are yet to be fully understood, much less safely controlled. You don’t see food producers advertising explicitly that they genetically engineer their products. They hide the fact and that is why organic grown foods are in such demand now.
The difficulties so far encountered with concentrated photovoltaics are that often the extra irradiation focused on the photovoltaic cell does increase its photon activity but only until it reaches a certain temperature and can shorten their life. The exotic lenses, reflective materials and mirrors used require precise placement, curvature and orientation to the sun. Also they get dirty easy and need frequent cleaning.
.
The thin-film, low cost photovoltaic material manufactured in this country using a combination of exotic materials is currently in the formative, non-mass produced stages and is still too expensive. Most of this fabrication is going overseas to the highest bidder and not helping us one bit. Somehow the US government doesn’t consider this “strategic materials and technology”. Go figure.
Stories of cheap solar electricity have been floating around for decades and are yet to come to fruition. The closest low per watt cost is the solar thermal (not photovoltaic) plants in the Mojave Desert and elsewhere that are now competitive with other fossil fueled power plants
But the average homeowner is still limited to expensive solar photovoltaics and where practical, wind generation. This could still work though if there was a partnership with industry and the government to regulate the price of power generated by 100% renewable energy (by definition, solar and wind). Anyone that invest in this system for their home is producing their own power but at times putting extra power back into the grid.
Any renewable energy producer should be paid a premium for not only the power they use but for the extra power they put back into the grid. The cost of this would be born by the non-renewable energy producers. This would entice them to produce a much larger percentage of their power using renewable energy.
Of course this would require Draconian political measures and a dramatic public mind-set change to do this. Whops, forgot I was looking for logic here. There is no logic to what a politically corrupt system and apathetically, uninformed public will do or not do.
Posted by: Arby | May 01, 2008 at 07:57 PM
Scott, this will NOT become big. Steorn is coming out with their Orbo technology which will provide clean perpetual energy for all. They will even give the technology away to developing countries. God bless the Irish.
Posted by: Jimmie | May 01, 2008 at 07:19 PM
"The oh-my-God moment came when I realized that Israel can destroy all of its local enemies by inventing solar technology that makes oil uneconomical.M"
Yeah, that's about as likely as someone inventing a pill that turns water into gasoline.
The Saudis pump oil for around $5/bbl. Even with 100% efficiency and the photovoltaics costing nothing, it still wouldn't have the energy/mass ratio to replace oil in mobile applications at $50/bbl. Even if it the magical technology somehow weighed nothing too, it still wouldn't have the available surface area.
And anyways, even if all that happened, all those countries would still hate Israel just as much, so nothing would change, except we would have to give them more aid so everyone didn't starve to death. And if you think that would improve our hand, you've never heard of North Korea.
Posted by: TallDave | May 01, 2008 at 06:58 PM
There is only one good reason to stop burning oil for fuel, and it can be summed up in one word. Plastic. I actually agree with the ultra-confused green party hippies, but not for any drug induced BS about Gay-uh, or concern for the endangered kangaroo rat. The earth is ours to destroy as we see fit (God said so in the bible, and Rev. Wright confirmed it). But I think we should leave a little oil so our great-great-great-great grandkids can have iPods, milk cartons, sporks, and the countless other disposable POS that we enjoy today.
Posted by: HCG | May 01, 2008 at 06:56 PM
They're probably done with the basics, just working to develop a way to prevent China from immediately stealing it and making cheap, badly made, ecologically disastrous models to flood the world with. That's what's taking so long.
D. Mented
Posted by: D. Mented | May 01, 2008 at 05:25 PM
So... Am I the only one who is thinking, "How can I cash in on this news??"
It seems to me that once/if SUNRGI goes public, their stock would continue to grow for a couple decades. Periphery industries would also benefit, I suppose - such as the PC chip manufacturing facilities that this company plans on using to mass produce this product.
Does anyone share in this thought? Can someone offer some investment advice??? Everyone knows that bloggers offer the most qualified, proven financial advice available on this planet('s internetwork)...
Ah... wait... My laziness just kicked in. Oh well. Don't worry about it... I'm content again.
Posted by: Tom O | May 01, 2008 at 05:10 PM
The key here is transport (which consumes so much terrorism-related Saudi oil). The solution is already being done in Australia and New Zealand, neither of which use nuclear power. So if this is possible and feasible without sweet, clean, pure nuclear power, imagine how good it would be in the USA and France?
www.kiwiev.com
www.electric-echo.com
Just 2 examples of Antipodean brilliance in terms of electric transportation.
Nuclear power + Li-ion batteries = speed + range. This magic formula is already defeating the nay-sayers!
Dispose of the spent nuclear waste by using the new ISS Progress transports to fly it into the sun.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progress_spacecraft
Posted by: Justin Sawell | May 01, 2008 at 04:53 PM
any amazing new economical oil-replacement technology:
cue a company to buy the rights to it in the guise of mass production, and then mothball it for eternity.
kind of like Chevron and the large NIMH batteries invented for the EV-1 car. Chevron bought them with the intent to make sure nobody ever used them again.
Posted by: Will Von Wizzlepig | May 01, 2008 at 04:08 PM
I so hope that Israel does a thing like that.
Not that it will put the Arab stupidity to rest, but also equally it will remove the need for Israel to use brute force on its underprivileged neighbor.
Posted by: ujmi | May 01, 2008 at 03:45 PM
does this remind anyone of the Left Behind series?
burt trub
Posted by: burt | May 01, 2008 at 02:56 PM
we tend to forget that most of the money stops in there. Any smart business man, reinvests the bulk of their wealth. Finding a better power technology than oil will only cut a single revenue stream for most of the powerful. Our problem doesn't go away, it will only change vector.
Posted by: Todd T. | May 01, 2008 at 02:33 PM
As always, an interesting point well made. The rapid progress in lower cost solar will eventually do the job. It would be fitting for the Israelis to be the first to break the price line. Many thanks!
Posted by: Jack Miller | May 01, 2008 at 02:25 PM
To all those who think that killing oil industry is impossible because US economy depends on it.
News flash. No amount of world policing can stop most of the world from abandoning oil the second we can get cheaper and better alternative. Sure ruining US economy has global short term consequences, but thats nothing compared to long term boost that clean and cheap energy could create. Now that your economy is in trouble anyway would be a good time to make some global changes.
Posted by: Bloodboiler | May 01, 2008 at 02:04 PM
say Fcu% the doubters... I'm investing heavily in Israeli Solar Energy Stocks... and battery companies too.
Posted by: WhyNotMe | May 01, 2008 at 01:26 PM
Well done, sir. Best post here in months. You actually blew my mind a little.
Posted by: Matt | May 01, 2008 at 01:08 PM
That's all nice and dandy in some other reality - if there was such a thing. However, if Israel invented something that made oil worthless then there would be not a single reason for America or any other country to back Israel.
Israel was created and exists only to keep the Arabs in line and pumping oil.
Why else does placing millions of jews back into the middle east - where they willing left in the first place - make more sense then giving them some part of South America as originally planned.
Around the end of World War I is when the need for a lot more oil became obvious; and not just by industry. It is also when oil was discovered in the Middle East. Lastly, Zionism also started taking hold around this time.
Put all three together and you get:
The modern boundaries of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Jordan came about from western (Britian and US) backing/planning.
All of the above is publicly referenced/available on Wikipedia for those who seek truth.
So we can safely say:
No Oil, No Israel. Period.
Posted by: reality | May 01, 2008 at 12:07 PM
There's already a staggering multitude of alternatives to the present energy situation. Many of them requiring nothing more than existing off-the-shelf technologies. The only real sticking point is that the powers-that-be prefer the current status quo. Israel can't change that fact, no matter how good their technology might be.
For details and a plethora of references from sources like AP, Reuters, Washington Post, Businessweek, NYT, MSNBC, CBS, Forbes, Economist, Financial Times, Scientific American, and more, check this page:
There are NO absolute shortages of living space, materials, or energy: the foundation commodities which ultimately determine the costs of everything else;
America's de facto domestic and foreign policies of artificial scarcity and institutionalized poverty (part two)
http://www.jmooneyham.com/artificial-scarcity-institutionalized-poverty-in-america-2.html
Posted by: J.R. Mooneyham | May 01, 2008 at 11:51 AM
I always talk about the curse of natural resources. The flip side are nations like Japan that have none, and so are forced to use human energy to produce things of real value. Maybe Israel could be the next Japan - the tiny nation that could.
Posted by: Fuzznsmoo | May 01, 2008 at 11:50 AM
Raskolnikov's history is a little weak - the Brits invented radar long before the start of WW2 - but his basic point is good; necessity is the mother of invention and war is the mother of necessity. If the cold war had required the US to invent cheap, oil-free energy then I bet we would have seen it by now.
Posted by: MacFeagle | May 01, 2008 at 11:48 AM
I'm just waiting to hear what the adverse macroscopic (yes, that's MACRO) effect of solar energy ends up being.
burning dinosaurs gave us global warming
ditto for ancient plants (coal) with the additional benefits of acid rain and soot
nuclear power produces nuclear waste (& the occasional meltdown)
hydro screws up downstream ecosystems
wind kills birds which is actually a pretty small price to pay but I suspect we haven't heard the end of this yet and that brings me to me point:
there are no free lunches in physics - every joule extracted from a system has an opportunity cost (how it would have otherwise altered the environment) and when you start scaling up to gigawatts with ANY energy source there's going to be unintended consequences.
Posted by: jakesdad | May 01, 2008 at 11:37 AM
It is always a source of amusements when I hear Americans bitching about the price of petrol (gas). At current exchange rates, UK residents currently pay at least $8.80 per gallon.
Posted by: Ian Davies | May 01, 2008 at 11:35 AM
So Israel gets a patent on its invention, starts selling them to the world, the US and Europe cheer, oil prices drop. Saudi Arabia's profits drop severely.
Waves of disgruntled laid-off Saudi oil workers launch vindictive suicide sorties on Israel. A war is fought to occupy Saudi Arabia. An Islamic "Vatican" state is formed around Mecca and Medina, amd the remainder is divvied up to the major remaining oil companies.
As the remaining oil dribbles out, the remaining OPEC nations team up with Iran, Russia, China, and Venezuela to illegally copy Israel's invention and give it away to countries that join their Islamo-Socialist-Russian coalition, a new superpower.
The Eastern and Western superpowers form up around solar power grids. Ally nations are plugged into the grid, and international relations are carried out by turning up or turning down the power. Toe the line or the lights go out.
Unable to dominate each other by controlling the natural resource of oil, the two new superpowers attempt to control the weather, sending overcasts and hurricanes to ruin the other's solar power grid, each weather event might be "natural" or a potential act of war.
Sound about right?
Posted by: KH | May 01, 2008 at 11:24 AM
Dude! The U.S. economy is so inexorably integrated to oil that the idea of unhinging that relationship is akin to treason. Viable developments leading to a sudden and palpable decrease in oil consumption would propagate a wave of dire circumstances. Like Kermit said, "It ain't easy being Green." Easier to be "pretend Green" and drive a car that runs on diesel (oil), Ethanol (part oil), or a Gas/Electric Hybrid (part oil). Then drive that oil burner down to Wal-Mart 3X a week to load up on goods made by the Chinese (the worst polluters ever) while feeling proud of yourself. To do otherwise might make life knarly in ways you don't want to imagine.
Posted by: GLK | May 01, 2008 at 11:07 AM
I hope so, for my sake, but then whomever owns the pattents will jack up the price ont he "sun" and we will pay them rather than the oil companies........
It's not about the energy it is about who has the power to lord it over everyone else..
Posted by: Eric M | May 01, 2008 at 10:30 AM
" Israel can _decimate_ all of its local enemies "
I don't think reducing their enemies by 10% will really do any good. They need to obliterate their enemies.
Posted by: John Bedard | May 01, 2008 at 10:21 AM
Why waste all that heat when you could hook it to a stirling engine and generate more power?
-HAL
Posted by: HALiverpool | May 01, 2008 at 10:00 AM
I'm disappointed, Scott.
This morning I read an article about someone paying $960 for 130 million year old fossilized dinosaur poop, and I immediately figured you would have a blog entry about it.
That's much more blog-worthy than solar cells. How could you have missed that?
Posted by: RPK | May 01, 2008 at 09:56 AM
Okay so here is the REAL issue. Humans spend too much time and energy moving stuff and ourselves around. If we were just happy with where things currently are and where we are then we'd be fine.
Posted by: Brett | May 01, 2008 at 09:45 AM
I guess nobody bothered to check out the contact details for sunrgi.
I'm pretty sure we can put our faith for the future of human kind in a company based in Sunset Boulevard, Hollywood, California.....
Scott, please do research better next time.
The final argument is solid, but use some better examples.
Posted by: Cornholio | May 01, 2008 at 09:29 AM
Um, Scott, just about everything else is made out of oil. Plastic. Fertilizers. Rubber. The cooling oil in electric tansformers. I'm guessing the market would dip, but not disappear.
Posted by: taylor | May 01, 2008 at 09:28 AM
According to the "Left Behind" book series, this is pretty much how the end of the world starts.
Posted by: Davis Hipps | May 01, 2008 at 09:22 AM
You atheists and your oh-my-God moments.
I'll bet you say that at certain...uh, intimate occasions, shall we say...too.
Sorry to give everyone that mental image.
Posted by: Leora | May 01, 2008 at 09:21 AM
Scott, When you say "Oh-my-God" to Whom are you referring?
Posted by: the wonderer | May 01, 2008 at 08:46 AM
Great post, and a nice idea.
BUT - 'decimate' means to reduce by 10%. I think you probably meant something bigger than that.
Posted by: Pedant | May 01, 2008 at 08:44 AM
You cannot make oil irrelevant so easily. Energy storage is costly and inefficient, solar power doesn't work very well at night...
And oil is king in transportation for the same reason, its the most efficiently stored easily used energy we have.
If you talk to people in the business they will tell you, every single alternative energy combined will still struggle immensely to meet our energy needs. Nuclear energy is the only alternative to fossil fuels right now with the potential to produce the kinds of quantities of energy required. Right now it takes almost as much energy to produce a solar panel as the solar panel will produce in its lifetime. But even with ultra cheap solar panels, you still need to store the power. At best solar power will contribute to power grids during the day (its too expensive/difficult to store the power).
Only when people are convinced to use mass transit (due mostly to extreme gas/oil prices) which runs off the power grid, will you see a reduction in oil demand.
The demand for energy is growing constantly, even with conservation efforts and increased energy cost, demand still increases, cheap solar power will only help to meet that growing demand, not make other power sources obsolete.
[So, all we need is a patent for better batteries? -- Scott]
Posted by: dan | May 01, 2008 at 08:44 AM
I love it! How soon do you think this will happen. I've already calculated that my salary increase this year won't cover the gas hikes.
A while ago The Daily Show had a clip of Bush running for president in which he said that the $1.30 a gallon gas prices at the time proved Clinton didn't have an effective energy policy. God I miss those days!
Posted by: Diana W | May 01, 2008 at 08:22 AM
It's possible, it's a matter of time. It's the prediction made by physicists/scientists: human will harness energy from the sun and the universe. The sun can provide energy million times more than the earth ever needs, we just dont know how to get it now. Another unlimited source of energy is the sea.
Posted by: amenot | May 01, 2008 at 08:16 AM
From your lips to G-d's ear, Scott.
Posted by: Busta | May 01, 2008 at 08:16 AM
Great Scott, you've just given every anti-Semite a reason to continue hating Jews even after they solve the world's energy crisis.
"They saved the world, but just to spite the Muslims"
Posted by: Joshua Ungerleider | May 01, 2008 at 08:12 AM
Exactly what percentage of credibility should be given to a self proclaimed
"oh-my-God moment" that happens to come from an atheist?
Not that there's anything wrong with that idea.
http://boskolives.wordpress.com/
Posted by: jerry w. | May 01, 2008 at 08:05 AM
That could occur if and only if these new solar panels catch on in most or all of the world's top oil-consuming nations, including the USA. And I predict that while all of the nation's top pot-consuming citizens will buy them, few if any others will for quite a while.
Posted by: Robby | May 01, 2008 at 08:05 AM
I bet John Hagee was involved...
In all seriousness though, I'm not sure if that would really solve the problem so easily. If all those mid-east countries felt their power being quickly taken away, they might act just as quickly and wreak mass havoc, especially upon Israel. I would think the change would have to be quite gradual in some form for their to be no serious side effects. And even then, anything that puts it in a win/lose situation (where Israel wins and the others lose) could lead to those side effects regardless of the speed.
Posted by: Leslie | May 01, 2008 at 08:05 AM
I can't see how it will stop people from strapping bombs to themselves (or strapping bombs to mentally challenged people) and taking a walk to the local gathering.
How does this stop rocket attacks? What would prevent those countries that has all this cash from taking advantage of the new technology and making even more money from it?
I think you are drinking your own kool-aid there, Scott.
Posted by: AC | May 01, 2008 at 08:02 AM
I love it! Now, shape the solar cells like ants and send out an army of 5-year olds with magnifying glasses and we can make this an American success, too.
Posted by: Conrad | May 01, 2008 at 08:01 AM
In WWII Britain was getting spanked by the Germans until the the wily Brits invented radar and gave themselves a second chance.
In WWII Britain broke the German codes to give themselves another chance.
Your Isreali prediction is inspired, but I worry the analogy breaks down because Isreal is not getting bombed right now. Their engineers are not living in bunkers, feverishly working 20 hr days to keep armies from their doorsteps. I think its that kind of mentality that is required to make a breakthrough invention like that. I hope I'm wrong.
Posted by: Raskolnikov | May 01, 2008 at 07:57 AM
Scott,
I hope your prediction is right. Who better than those who live in the desert regions to develop a method of power production from sunlight?
One day depletion of the oil fields, as well as shortaged of other materials being heavily used in out current society will require groundbreaking developments such as this. We will continue to grow and develop, just in a different way.
Maybe it won't be all bad, instead of moaning and groaning about what we don't have, we may begin to be grateful for what we do have.
Posted by: LadySatel | May 01, 2008 at 07:57 AM
But, Israel doesn't have a lock on the sun. All those oil producing neighbors get a lot of sun too. They could use the technology too (granted Israel sells them the licenses) to produce energy. But, you're right, it would decimate their massive income. The main question is how to store, and then sell, the solar energy that is produced.
Posted by: Beatrice M | May 01, 2008 at 07:56 AM
Scott, There is a lot of energy in crude and it is cheap to refine and access. That's why for all the various forms of alternative energy (except nuclear fission), the price of crude has to remain high over a long horizon for it to make any sense to consider investing in it. Solar probably has a viable niche in peak energy generation in hot climates on hot days and where small amounts of portable electricity are needed. US companies like SunPower are already within 1/3 of the theoretical efficiency limits of solar. There's no magic about energy economics, which is what makes all the attempts of visionary policy the folly that they are.
Posted by: BoscoH | May 01, 2008 at 07:56 AM
I wish the U.S. would invent alternatives to oil. Then we could be the OPEC of the Green Age.
Posted by: Rob | May 01, 2008 at 07:50 AM
The science looks promising, and if it works like it's supposed to, your prediction could very well come true.
Personally, I would install these at my house, enough to power my entire house. If that works well, then I would install some more and trade in my car for an electric car to plug in at night. I would keep my minivan at first for longer trips, (since the demand for gas would go down, so would the price) but probably not for long if the technology holds out.
Now, I don't understand some of the technobabble that is in the article, but there have been a few articles like this posted in the last year, so one of the companies has to get it right.
I would welcome the change to one of clean, renewable energy, partially eliminating the need for more coal or nuclear power plants. It would be a definite bonus for homeowners to regulate their own power, but I don't see businesses, malls, office buildings, apartments or industrial complexes jumping on the bandwagon anytime soon. If the local power companies were smart, they would jump on this, start generating lots of cheap energy, and lower their prices so people would not think of installing their own.
Posted by: DF | May 01, 2008 at 07:50 AM
Added incentives might just work enough in their favor to achieve this. You might well be right in your prediction.
Posted by: Gustaf Sjoblom | May 01, 2008 at 07:46 AM
High efficiency cells combined with fresnel lenses are nothing new, I had some production samples from the '80s. The restraining issue with this system becomes producing high quality fresnel lenses that can handle long term environmental exposure for cheap, and that hasn't happened yet. So they've traded one problem for another, adding another branch to the pipe dream.
Posted by: wrench | May 01, 2008 at 07:37 AM
You can't run an electrical
grid on solar power alone, or
even more than about 15% solar
in your energy mix. That's
because you don't control the
clouds, and you need to have
sufficient operating reserve
to keep the grid running when
the solar array suddenly goes
off-line.
Solar doesn't compete with oil
because almost no electricity
is generated from oil. Oil is
used mostly for transportation
because that pays more. The
fossil fuels used to generate
electricity are natural gas
and coal -- coal for meeting
base load and natural gas for
meeting peak load.
Posted by: Mark Thorson | May 01, 2008 at 07:35 AM
Part of the article you cited said:
[SUNRGI says it can multiply that by four because it has a system to instantly cool its germanium-based semiconductor from 3,300 degrees to 20 degrees above ambient temperature. High temperatures can melt a solar cell.]
Without reading it clearly, I thought "Wow! Geraniums are better than I thought! I will grow more this year, instead of Marigolds."
Then I realized it was "germanium" which is "a lustrous, hard, silver-white metalloid chemically similar to tin. Germanium forms a large number of organometallic compounds and is an important semiconductor material used in transistors. It is named after the country of Germany."
Wow! Scott! I learn something new everyday on your blog.
I am happy. Soon we will all be heated and cooled with the help of germanium. Wonder if it smells like a flower? Wonder if the Germans wear them in their lapels?
Rita Mae
Posted by: rita mae | May 01, 2008 at 07:34 AM
Sadly, Solar won't replace many other aspects of oil, such as plastics and fertilizers... but this is grand news regardless.
Posted by: drjon | May 01, 2008 at 07:27 AM
No, they can't. The also need to develop BATTERY technology.
Oil is MOSTLY used for transportation, not electricity generation.
Transportation requires ALOT of energy... more than the amount of solar energy striking the surfaces of a vehicle at any given time. So, without proper battery technology to provide the extra power to make up the difference..... Solar power alone cannot make oil uneconomical.
So, if you were to say "Israel needs to come up with an oil-independent transportation solution," I wold agree with you. Solar alone doesn't cut it, however.
Ryan
Posted by: Moondawg | May 01, 2008 at 07:22 AM
Or you just gave the Middle East another reason to wipe Israel off the map?
Posted by: Real Live Girl | May 01, 2008 at 07:14 AM
Hey Scott,
As an israeli I can tell you that we're up to this idea for a long time. One of the main reasons we working so hard on the alternative energy's stuff is because it will help us in my future.
So - Go & Buy hybrid cars!
Posted by: Miky Schreiber | May 01, 2008 at 07:13 AM
Well, yes and no. Killing the oil market would definitely have a massive impact on the terror sponsors such as Saudi Arabia and Iran but then the media would kick in and say that us destroying their economy will create even more terrorists.
Posted by: Jacob Share | May 01, 2008 at 07:12 AM
Scott,
From the article:
[They also claim that PS I generates a stable charge separation in 200 ns across 6 nm of protein to generate an electric potential of 1 V with quantum efficiency of 1 and absorbed energy conversion efficiency of 47 percent. A further advantage of PS I is said to be its transparency to infrared radiation, which eliminates the need for expensive cooling equipment.]
I haven't a clue what this means but I bet at least one commenter will question this claim and give an equal amount of mumbo jumbo to prove their point.
http://triplebee.squarespace.com/journal/
Posted by: Billy Arvia | May 01, 2008 at 07:08 AM
I don't like Israel much, being born and raised as Pakistan, I sympathize with Palestine and consider Israel as occupant.
But....
My loyalties are with any one that make fuel cheaper and environmental friendly. If Israel does it, I'll cheer with them watching middle east shaikhs go poor and environment become cleaner.
Posted by: imran | May 01, 2008 at 06:57 AM
Actually, if they are smart, they'll go one step further, and make the technology available open source, no patent protection. That way, it would be impossible for anyone to suppress it.
Posted by: Carl Chipman | May 01, 2008 at 06:50 AM
Hey we'd like to dedicate this song to all you terrorist folks out there...
You are my sunshine, my only sunshine
Now you can bite me, and go away
Just keep your oil and rocks and goats now...
You can't take our sunshine away :)
Still on the level of pipe dream, but ironic as hell if it worked. I mean, how does Al-Jazeera (sp?) report this?
Those damn jews and their evil zionist schemes for free energy... if they're not stopped, they might eliminate hunger and poverty completely from the earth!
Posted by: E | May 01, 2008 at 06:42 AM
I have been thinking that for some time now. It's only a matter of time. Once the oil gravy train runs out, the Middle East will be dramatically transformed.
Posted by: Dennis Berryman | May 01, 2008 at 06:41 AM
There is no technology that can't be stolen and re-produced with prettier wrapping paper. How else do you explain the Windows software that I'm typing on right now?
setec astrology
no more secrets
Posted by: Almost Lucid (Brad) | May 01, 2008 at 06:37 AM
Dear God! We can only hope!
Posted by: fester60613 | May 01, 2008 at 06:35 AM
God willing.
Posted by: Avi | May 01, 2008 at 06:32 AM
Great. The first place they can put them is in the Occupied Territories, where they have, for 6 decades, been treating the Palestinians in roughly the same manner that we've been treating Native Americans. At least those poor sods will finally have some sort of consistent power source to help create a working and stable society.
Posted by: tao | May 01, 2008 at 06:30 AM
Brilliant as usual. Sometimes I think, when the light-bulb goes on, that our government fights wars with guns to distract us from the fact we are losing the genuine war, the one fought with balance sheets.
Posted by: Chromepoet | May 01, 2008 at 06:30 AM
so what is israel going to do, sell the sun? because surely no other country is capable of making solar panels.
Posted by: steved | May 01, 2008 at 06:23 AM
Hi Scott,
As always, these things do sound exciting. We'll see what happens. I do like your thoery about Israel having extra incentive to compete against oil. If Israel gets attacked soon they will probably blame you. Me, I'm looking forward to cheap gas again.
dsg
Posted by: dsg | May 01, 2008 at 06:21 AM
May be, but what about the Palestinians? They don't have oil to begin with....
Posted by: I_am_still_laughing | May 01, 2008 at 06:19 AM
I wonder if they will give their solar technology to the US government like we've given them all of our defense technology . . . at absolutely no charge.
Posted by: Slap D. Monkey | May 01, 2008 at 06:18 AM
You're flying off into geek enthusiasm again mate - the internal combustion engine doesn't run on electricity, and we still don't have a storage mechanism for electric charge which will do for this purpose.
People won't give up their cars becaue electricity costs a pittance: however, this tech would stop Russia's current strangehold of wholesale domestic energy markets in large areas of europe, which can only be good.
Therefore, I predict that in the very near future Russia will attach Israel under some flimsy pretence. Or buy it outright.
Posted by: Andy Watt | May 01, 2008 at 06:17 AM
Well that's me out of work. All my recent experience is oil and gas pipeline systems, before that I've got a few years in the Nuclear Industry. Curse you Scott Adams, curse you!
Posted by: Mike | May 01, 2008 at 06:14 AM