Dog Catches Car – Update

It’s time to check one of my predictions from over a year ago. Hamas had just won a majority in the Palestinian Legislative Council. I likened their victory to a dog catching a car and saying, “Now what?”

My prediction was this: “I have to think it will be difficult for Hamas to reconcile the whole “destroy Israel” platform with ‘We’ll all be at the Parliament building at noon talking about how to do it.’ … I predict that Hamas will start softening their position by the time you read this. Or maybe they’ll wait a few weeks just to make it seem like they thought about it. But it’ll happen.”

Today I read this article that discusses the softening of their position, at least publicly.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/world/20070410-1051-palestinians-hamasriddle.html

It’s safe to assume that some if not most members of Hamas have a master plan of pretending to be peaceful while building up resources for future attacks against Israel. But publicly they are softening.

What would you do if you were Hamas?

Now that Hamas has some legitimate governing power, it can’t support terrorist attacks without inviting massive Israeli retaliation that would effectively eliminate their gains in the government, probably permanently. They can’t renounce their position about destroying Israel because their own members would turn on them. And they can’t govern effectively because most other governments have turned off their aid and refuse to talk to them.

The only path open to Hamas is to convince its followers that they are only going to pretend to be peaceful until they build up strength for an attack. Once the population believes it’s only a trick, they’ll support their officials in making disingenuous statements recognizing Israel’s right to exist and renouncing violence. While no one will trust their statements, it will satisfy the international requirements, and aid will start flowing again.

Here’s the cool part. According to my new favorite book, Influence, once someone commits a position to writing, even a position he doesn’t believe, and states it publicly, the person starts changing his actual position to what he said, even if the original statements were lies. The research shows this to be true. In other words, Hamas government officials could inadvertently lie themselves into becoming peaceful people.

My new prediction is that Hamas will realize it has no path other than to wink at its own citizens while publicly recognizing Israel and denouncing violence. There will be much secret plotting against Israel to keep people happy, but the time to act will always be “soon” and never “now.” Over time, Hamas will get used to being a legitimate government, visiting world leaders and whatnot, and they won’t want to screw it up just to blow up some hotels in Israel.

A splinter group will think the mainstream Hamas rulers are too soft, and they will start doing their own terrorizing. By then it will make more sense for Hamas and Israel to collaborate against the terrorists, since the terror will be directed toward both governments.

My prediction for the future is that Hamas and Israel will be allies against extremists in both of their countries. That’s what happens when the dog catches the car.

Comments

[Rob]

I think it is obvious that people tend to follow what they say. This causes an internal struggle when actions and previous commitments don't match. The level of discomfort is dependant on the person though. Liars don't mind it much and it will have much less impact on their future actions. Some people can say one thing and do another without much internal chaos and struggle. I think for Hamas to be consistent it would have to lie and then kill Jews. Anything else would be inconsistent. It is to the point now that being honest would be less consistent for them than lying.

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[Paul C]

Can't help thinking HAMAS has scored a very big own goal recently...

As it becomes more likely that a BBC journalist kidnapped in Gaza has been murdered (presumably for being a local representative of the Little Satan), you have to ask yourself what these people think they're playing at.

Yes, this is a guy whose nationality would make him a target for Islamic extremists. But on the other hand, he represented a broadcast organiation which has the freedom to criticise British and American state policy (and frequently does)and which in the past has exposed some of Israel's nastier behaviour towards Palestinians.

You do not gratuitously go out shooting people who are disposed to look kindly on you and give your case a fair hearing in the international press - not if you have any brains.... but ideology triumphs over pragmatism, seemingly, and it's more important to strike a blow against the hated British...

[TomB]

Scott,
You missed the boat big time on this one. You got this one totally wrong. They might be soft in English, but to figure out Hamas, you have to see what they are saying in Arabic. They are continuing to calling for genocide. Where did you get the idea that they were overcoming the Koran?
See link below:
From Palestinian Media Watch:
As Hamas seeks international recognition by softening its tone in English, in Arabic it continues the calls for genocide of Jews. In a recent sermon on PA TV, Hamas spokesman Dr. Ismail Radwan made it clear that the classical Hamas ideology had not changed, including its continued incorporation of extremist Islamic beliefs into Hamas ideology and policy. He reiterated:

http://pmw.org.il/bulletins_apr2007.htm#b120407

[paul C]

In Britain there's an ongoing national "angst" about the rise of far-right political parties who are actually succeeding in geting their representatives elected to local councils (is the American term "selectman?") and who may actually succeed in getting at least one MP elected to parliament. Although how you tell the ideological difference between a British National Party MP who at least admits he's a fascist, and a far-right Conservative (orthodox right-wing party)who just foams at the mouth about immigrants and might privately be less than flattering about workers, trade unionists and Jews, is beyond me...

I think being elected to low-level political posts, like a local councillor or Selectman, would actually be GOOD for extremists of any persuasion.

Imagine if Adolf Hitler had been elected not as Fuhrer but as a local councillor in Linz or Vienna...

"Ja, herr Hitler, all that stuff about the manifest desitny of the German speaking peoples and the need to carve out Lebensraum in the East is all very well, but what I want to know is, what can you do about my blocked drains?"

It would drag them down to the real world with a very necessary bump...

[AusLisa]

OUTSTANDING! Your powers of deductive reasoning and logical progression are both perceptive and amusing. No wonder i keep coming back.

[techguy]

Seems Israel is afraid to catch its own car:
http://www.counterpunch.org/levy04092007.html

[Mel Z]

You may have missed something. According to the same book. The principle of social proof may apply to all Hamas followers. If Hamas starts saying Israel is not important, Then the people who subscribe to their line of thought may look to the for clues, and, not being sure what to do, will simply start following them. Therefore, the chance of a small group breaking out and attacking both Hamas and Israel will actually increase. Man, this book is handy

[Bytesage]

It is SOOO complex to try to analyze the motives, and direction of politicians it is much easier to call it like it is

... 99% of all politicians are lying power hungry thieves and/or murderers.

[Paul Wright]

Just a point about Israel/Palestine - they are NOT separate countries. That is one of the problems. The Palestine territories are not a sovereign nation. Whether they are actually part of Israel, Jordan or the Ottoman empire is up for grabs, but Palestine is not a country. One of the problems for Israel is to define Israel's borders as a country with a Jewish majority population - which means excluding the places where there are too many Palestinians in case they do vote in Israeli elections.

[Devon]

Hamas is simply Islam taken to its logical conclusion...murderous and brutal!!

You CAN never negotiate with these murderers and savages...they are no different then nazis or stalinists...

All we can do in the civilized world is continue to send them to their '72 virgins' or lock them up....

And to some of the dolts on this board pointing out Hamas good deeds.....well, the SS had daycares and Hitler loved Doggies....

The ravages of moral relativism....most people cannot even recognize evil right in front of them....and Hamas is as evil as they come!!

[Martin]

Saying it in public isn't writing it down.

[Iain]

I am not sure it is even fitting to be posting today on a day when that hugely great writer Kurt Vonnegut died. Extract from 'A Man without a Country':

http://books.guardian.co.uk/extracts/story/0,,1691370,00.html

Do have a read of old Kurt if you have not done so and are interested in the issues raised in this blog rather than just the funnies - he has a very different oblique slant on things - he might write directly occassionally but the best stuff is certainly not.

[Skrrp]

Bob writes:

[Solution is so simple ... mind altering happy drugs! (Names of drugs with held but it does ryhms with Meed)

Air drop about 1000 tonnes of this stuff all over isreal/palestine with instructions on how to use it. Within days, the entire region will be at peace. The food supply will run out as well. And here's the deal. While everyone is happy and hungry the UN goes in and give em food in exchange for a peace treaty.

A few days after the even when they come to thier senses ... its too late. Peace accord signed and sealed. If war flairs again ... drop another 1000 tonnes of the happy stuff.]

To save on the overflights and all that CO2 emission, you could simply embed the Meed in the aid food you are delivering. None of that cancer spreading smoking* that way.

If that fails, you could try the old CIA trick of putting (acronym of) Long Shore Drift in the water supply.

*I am a smoker, but its better to eat your Meed.

[Jason]

where the heck did the archive go?

[Al]

Scott - is this the author that wrote the book so oft quoted above?
Dr. Robert Cialdini?

Al

[Joe Canuck]

Things can change. The 1946 bombing of the King David Hotel was ordered by Menachem Begin, the head of the Irgun (arguably a terrorist organization). Begin eventually gained legitimacy and became Prime Minister of Israel.

/Joe

[wernman]

Certianly plausible...

[basselope]

I'm not so sure about your last conclusion that Hamas and Israel will begin to side together, but I think the rest is spot on!

The way I see it, in time Hamas will become the new Fatah and a new Hamas will appear (PLO MarkII perhaps). Maybe by that time Israel and Fatah will buddy up a little closer - Fatah, so they can try to recapture some power, and Israel because they see a chance to gain some footing on the intelligence front and because it helps their global image.

[skola]

Yeah right, Palestinians fighting amongst themselves, total breakdown of law and order, clan violence, vendettas, murder of children of opposition leaders, burning down of universities and hospitals, etc., is known as "softening" in Scott-land.

dream on.

[TomB]

Scott,
You are so naive. The reason it looks as if Hamas is talking peace is because they have gotten a new partner, that great humanitarian group, Al-Qaida! It is their new attack dog. Now we know what this dog does when it catches the car, it blows it up! And you are kidding yourself if you think they will partner with Israel to fight terrorist, the last group in charge, the Palestinian Authority didn’t. Remember Scott, this group doesn’t follow your normal rules.

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=55108

[Mark Robinson]

Well, I could see this happening Scott, yes. But I agree with those talking about Hitler - just because he stated he wanted peace, did not prevent him from starting a war.

Indeed - politics does not have any lack of people stating one thing in public and then doing something totally different.

[jules]

We could get worse conflict in Israel: this country hosts muslim ( hamas ), jews (government) and christians ( remnants for first centuries christians)
At the moment, the christian and muslim population are at peace with each other ( common ennemy - israel government bombing/harrassing them for the last 50 years ).
Perfect situation to start new cruisade or big world religions war.

another subject...what is your take on global warning scott ? apart from the argument on is it for real or what, what do you think of what is advanced, to fight it ?
On their own, some propositions seems good, even if we dont know 100% for sure that they will help against global warning :
-restricting fuel consumption
-saving energy
-saving water
-teaching people not to waste things
-look for renewable source of energy
-filter emissions, keep pollutants to a minimum
-teach kids-adults to respect the environment, clean it when they can,...
-teach people the toilet way: leave the place in the shape you wanted it to be when you first entered !