Global Warming – Part 2

Apparently the two most common points of view on global warming, ferociously held, are these:

1. The earth is warming up.
2. The earth is warming up.

A few people have figured out that the only real question is whether people can or should do anything to try and slow the warming. Meanwhile, everyone else is counting icebergs and polar bears and imagining they are contributing to the debate.

The question of whether people are the cause of global warming, or part of the cause, is somewhat irrelevant. It doesn’t really matter if the problem is caused by cars or farting cows or rotting leaves. If the warming is going to threaten life as we know it, the only important questions are these:

1. Are we sure global warming will cause more bad than good?
2. Realistically, can we do anything to stop it?
3. Would the costs of stopping it be more or less than the benefits?

I’m fairly certain the answer to all three questions is “Beats the shit out of me.”

Some say the cost of slowing global warming would be several hundred trillion dollars, plus stunting the development of poor countries and dooming them to another century of grinding poverty and related health problems. That’s because the poor countries are the ones that will need to burn lots of coal and oil in order to develop. You and I can slap solar panels on the roof. But Mubutu the goat herder will have to continue getting his dental work from a guy with a rock. If he tries to build a steel plant, life on earth will cease.

If we accept the high expense of combating global warming, and it turns out we can’t make a dent in it no matter what we do, or the earth cools on its own for reasons we didn’t forsee, we’ve really screwed the pooch. It would be the biggest fuckup of all time.

Humans are wired to put more weight on avoiding potential huge fuckups than to pursue nebulous benefits to future generations. I see no hope of that changing. So regardless of how sure the scientists are that human activity is causing most of the global warming, it won’t have much impact on policies.

The other thing that struck me about the debate on global warming is that both sides are so obviously full of shit. I presume there is lots of truth buried beneath the steaming mounds of manure, but I’m not dedicated enough to dig it out. For example, a few readers pointed me to this article on the myths about global warming, as an example of a shining light of clarity:

http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/dn11462

But I had the opposite reaction when I read it. It just looked like propaganda to me, independent of the question of whether humans are causing global warming.

For homework, read the 26 myths and see if you can find the glaring omissions and biases. In the first myth, about human contributions to carbon dioxide being too tiny to matter, the author points out how much carbon dioxide comes from natural sources, such as rotting vegetation and oceans. What’s missing is any kind of assurance that science can measure that stuff with any useful precision. Maybe it can. Maybe it can’t. I have to think it’s hard to know how much stuff is rotting at what rate all over the globe. Where’s my link to an article about peer reviewed studies showing we can measure that stuff well enough for this purpose?

The author mentions the list of 60 “leading scientists” who signed a petition asking for Canada to review its decision on the Kyoto protocol. He points out that “many, if not most, of the 60 signatories are not actively engaged in studying climate change: some are not scientists at all and at least 15 are retired.” That’s fair. What’s missing is how many people on the list ARE active scientists in the appropriate fields. Is it two? Is it twenty? Twenty dissenters who are active in the field and willing to put their necks on the line seems like a lot to me. Two doesn’t. I’d like to know the number. An unbiased article might have said, “At least 15 of those scientists are totally credible and up to date on the science.”

Clearly there is plenty of bullshit on both sides of the debate. I’d like some clarity before I decide whether or not to kill Mubutu to save my beach house.

Comments

[Mark the Anxiety Cure Expert]

Welllllll, the way i see it unless you are Bono or President Bush or you personally have access to some nukes and you can scare people into taking your point of view, the majority of us don't have the power to impact the "globe" in it's entirey. This isnt to say you and I as individuals should just stick our heads in the sand. The way I see it if my actions or lack of actions could potentially make the world a better place for my kids or my friends or people I care about then for me it is worth the effort. If we all do a little for those we care about then whether "we" turn it around or not at least we were motivated by love and not fear...

[Terry (the car finder) Bolton]

global warming ;who is the responsible about this phenomenon? i think not only carbon dioxide is the direct reason; but the selfish use of energy resources.
another thing; if a part of the body harmed all the body will be harmed soon ;and so the globe!

[Mgmt]

Your comments are still actual 9 months after the posting.
dilbert you're my favorite.

For those who are still (in 2008...) not convinced that earth is warming up because of mens activities, you may find a lot of convincing articles here at 4rglobe.net:

http://4rglobe.net/globalwarming/index.php

Ciao.

Mgmt

[Mgmt]

Your comments are still actual 9 months after the posting.
dilbert you're my favorite.

For those who are still (in 2008...) not convinced that earth is warming up because of mens activities, you may find a lot of convincing articles here at 4rglobe.net:

http://4rglobe.net/globalwarming/index.php

Ciao.

Mgmt

[Mgmt]

Your comments are still actual 9 months after the posting.
dilbert you're my favorite.

For those who are still (in 2008...) not convinced that earth is warming up because of mens activities, you may find a lot of convincing articles here at 4rglobe.net:

http://4rglobe.net/globalwarming/index.php

Ciao.

Mgmt

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[Poptech]

Scientists Disputing "Man-Made" Global Warming Theory:

August H. Auer Jr., AMS Certified Meteorologist, Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Science, University of Wyoming, USA
Arthur B. Robinson, Ph.D. Chemistry, University of California, San Diego, USA
Arthur Rorsch, Ph.D. Emeritus Professor of Molecular Genetics, Leiden University, The Netherlands
Benny Peiser, Ph.D. Professor of Social Anthropology, Liverpool John Moores University, UK
Bjørn Lomborg, Ph.D. Political Science, University of Copenhagen, Denmark
Chris de Freitas, Ph.D. Associate Professor, Geography and Environmental Science, University of Auckland, Australia
Claude Allegre, Ph.D. Physics, University of Paris, France
Christopher Essex, Ph.D. Applied Mathematics Professor, University of Western Ontario, Canada
David Deming, Ph.D. Geophysics, University of Utah, USA
David Evans, B.Sc. Applied Mathematics and Physics, M.S. Statistics, Ph.D. Electrical Engineering, Stanford, USA
David J. Bellamy, B.Sc. Botany, Ph.D. Ecology, Durham University, UK
David R. Legates, Ph.D. Climatology, University of Delaware, USA
Dennis Avery, M.S. Agricultural Economics, The University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA
Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Ph.D. Professor of Hydrology, University of Washington, USA
Douglas Leahey, Meteorologist, Calgary, Canada
Douglas V. Hoyt, Solar Physicist and Climatologist, Retired, Raytheon, USA
Frederick Seitz, Ph.D. Physics, Princeton University, USA
Fred Singer, Ph.D. Physics, Princeton University, USA
Freeman Dyson, Professor Emeritus, Physics, Princeton, USA
Gary D. Sharp, Ph.D. Marine Biology, University of California, USA
Gary Novak, M.S. Microbiology, USA
George H. Taylor, M.S. Meteorology, University of Utah, USA
George V. Chilingarian, Ph.D. Geology, University of Southern California, USA
Habibullo Abdussamatov, Ph.D. Astrophysicist, The University of Leningrad, Russia
Henrik Svensmark, Solar System Physics, Danish National Space Center, Denmark
Howard Hayden, Ph.D. Emeritus Professor of Physics, University of Connecticut, USA
Hugh W. Ellsaesser, Ph.D. Meteorology, Formerly with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, USA
Ian D. Clark, Professor Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa, Canada
Ian Plimer, Professor of Mining Geology, University of Adelaide, Australia
Jack Barrett, Ph.D. Physical Chemistry, Manchester, UK
James Spann, AMS Certified Meteorologist, USA
Jackson Browne, High School Diploma
Ján Veizer, Professor Emeritus Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa, Canada
John J. Ray, Ph.D. Psychology, Macquarie University, Mensa, Sydney, Australia
John R. Christy, Ph.D. Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, USA
Joseph Conklin, M.S. Meteorology, Rutgers University, USA
Keith D. Hage, Ph.D. Emeritus Professor of Meteorology, University of Alberta, Canada
Luboš Motl, Ph.D. Theoretical Physicist, Harvard, USA
Madhav Khandekar, Ph.D. Meteorology, Florida State University, USA
Marcel Leroux, Professor Emeritus, Climatology, University of Lyon, France
Michael Crichton, M.D. Harvard, USA
Michael Savage, B.S. Biology, M.S. Anthropology, M.S. Ethnobotany, Ph.D. Nutritional Ethnomedicine, USA
Nir J. Shaviv, Ph.D. Astrophysicist, Israel Institute of Technology, Israel
Patrick J. Michaels, Ph.D. Ecological Climatology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA
Petr Chylek, Ph.D. Physics, University of California, USA
Philip Stott, Professor Emeritus, Department of Biogeography, University of London, UK
Reid A. Bryson, Ph.D. Meteorology, University of Chicago, USA
Richard S. Courtney, PhD. Geography, The Ohio State University, USA
Richard S. Lindzen, Ph.D. Professor of Meteorology, MIT, USA
Roger A. Pielke, Ph.D. Meteorology, Penn State, USA
Robert C. Balling, Ph.D. Geography, University of Oklahoma, USA
Robert Giegengack, Ph.D. Geology, Yale, USA
Robert H. Essenhigh, M.S. Natural Sciences, Ph.D. Chemical Engineering, University of Sheffield, UK
Robert Johnston, M.S. Physics, B.A. Astronomy, USA
Robert M. Carter, Geologist, James Cook University, Australia
Ross McKitrick, Ph.D. Economics, University of British Columbia, Canada
Roy Spencer, Ph.D. Meteorology, University of Wisconsin, USA
Sallie Baliunas, Ph.D. Astrophysics, Harvard, USA
Sherwood B. Idso, Ph.D. Soil Science, University of Minnesota, USA
Simon C. Brassell, B.Sc. Chemistry & Geology, Ph.D. Organic Geochemistry, University of Bristol, UK
Sonja Boehmer-Christiansen, Ph.D. Department of Geography, University of Hull, UK
Steve Milloy, B.A. Natural Sciences, M.S. Health Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, USA
Stephen McIntyre, B.Sc. Mathematics, University of Toronto, Canada
Syun-Ichi Akasofu, Ph.D. Founding Director International Arctic Research Center, USA
Tad S. Murty, Ph.D. Oceanography and Meteorology, University of Chicago, USA
Tim Patterson, Ph.D. Professor of Geology, Carleton University, Canada
Timothy F. Ball, Ph.D. Geography, Historical Climatology, University of London, UK
Vaclav Klaus, app. Ph.D. Economics, University of Economics, Prague, Czechoslovakia
Vincent Gray, Ph.D. Physical Chemistry, Cambridge University, UK
Wibjorn Karlen, Ph.D, Emeritus Professor of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, Sweden
William J.R. Alexander, Professor Emeritus, Department of Civil and Biosystems Engineering, University of Pretoria, South Africa
William M. Gray, Ph.D. Emeritus Professor of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, USA
Willie Soon, Ph.D. Astrophysics, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, USA
Zbigniew Jaworowski, M.D. Ph.D., Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection, Poland

The Anti "Man-Made" Global Warming Resource
http://z4.invisionfree.com/Popular_Technology/index.php?showtopic=2050

[Tarun K Juyal]

I am a regular reader of your article. And I am very impress with your blog upon Global Warming. Now I am also write a blog upon effects and causes of Global Warming. This blog is collection of news & reviews like the study found that global warming since 1985 has been caused neither by an increase in solar radiation nor by a decrease in the flux of galactic cosmic rays. Some researchers had also suggested that the latter might influence global warming because the rays trigger cloud formation.

[Tarun K Juyal]

I am a regular reader of your article. And I am very impress with your blog upon Global Warming. Now I am also write a blog upon effects and causes of Global Warming. This blog is collection of news & reviews like the study found that global warming since 1985 has been caused neither by an increase in solar radiation nor by a decrease in the flux of galactic cosmic rays. Some researchers had also suggested that the latter might influence global warming because the rays trigger cloud formation.

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[momento]

Finally, someone is thinking.

http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/287515/global_warming_mass_hysteria_or_hoax.html

[tihopilik]

Hello

I can't be bothered with anything these days, but shrug. I just don't have anything to say recently.


Bye

[govokinolij]

Hello

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Bye

[John]

Hi Scott,

Another well produced scary video for you from abc TV Australia.

http://www.abc.net.au/science/crude/

John

[Adrian D.]

There was a comment to the effect that conversions among scientists are one-directional. Unfortunately, this is mostly because of threats. I remember reading a "The Skeptic" column in Scientific American from a scientist who, although he said he now belives in human-caused global warming, states that he was told that if he didn't agree, then nothing he wrote about any science (even unrelated to global warming) would ever be published again.

[Scott Alan Miller]

The thing that amazes me is not the somewhat reasonable viewpoints of humans causing or nature/sun causing global warming but people claiming that the earth is getting colder. Often to support this viewpoint they claim that since there was snow in the northeast US in April (um, there normally is) that clearly global warming has not made New York a tropical paradise so it must not exist.

Sheeple. ARGH.

[Bob]

"It just looked like propaganda to me, independent of the question of whether humans are causing global warming."

QFT. Newscientist is really popular with non-scientist for a reason. They are simply not crediable anymore (Zero point energy anyone...).

I am somewhat shocked. you have displayed objectivity (what ever that is) in the debate, and so few do. Its good to see.

Why is there such a debate. I guess we like to think that we live in interesting times. That we casue everything, that we matter. That we can predict. Perhaps...

At this point in time, its gets newspapers sold and people watching your movie.... Do we need another reason.

[Mike Street]

I am very suspicious of anyone who uses the term 'carbon' when discussing global warming. It just shows a total ignorance of any science whatsoever. Carbon is a naturally occurring solid element, usually black (graphite) but, if you're lucky, also available in transparent (diamond). It is also necessary to all life on this planet (carbon I mean, not diamond despite what your girlfriend says).

The supposed generator of global warming is carbon dioxide, a colourless, odourless gas. Not the same thing at all.

[Larry]

Another 2 cents:

1 I'm now convinced that the earth is warming. Helping to convince me is that I've lived in the same habitat for 20+ years and it's definitely changing.

2 We've put a lot more carbon and other GHG in the atmosphere. I can't rule it out as the primary source of climate change.

3 There is no short-term fix. To reverse climate change (see 1) we have to take more carbon out of the atmosphere than we put in. If we go to 0 emissions, the world will continue to warm, as it has been doing lately. If we go to flat emissions, the world will warm faster. If we merely slow GHG growth, the world will warm faster still.

4 Technology is improving, and at an accelerating rate. Medium/long-term, there are lots of innovations that could make negative-carbon feasible. New materials, more efficient processes from photovoltaics to oil refining, better batteries, carbon sequestration, next-gen nuclear, and on and on. But none of these are here today, and once they are here, deploying them in quantity will take a generation. We should accelerate all of this. One technology I don't see a big future for is biofuels, because producing the bio competes with food production, and is otherwise highly disruptive to the environment.

5 Short-term, there is a lot of low-hanging fruit from various forms of conservation. Individually, we could reduce our consumption by a significant amount, and collectively, we could encourage each other even more. By low hanging fruit, I mean stuff that isn't hugely disruptive to our way of life. I don't see enough of it to make a big impact.

6 The best way to encourage conservation is with higher energy prices. Higher prices encourage everyone, not just say, new car buyers, to make smarter decisions. Whether it's the setting on the thermostat, the pressure on the gas pedal, or whether to pick an efficient CFL bulb instead of an incandescent, price matters. Whether via cap/auction/trade or higher taxes, we could quickly and substantially affect our GHG output at a relatively low cost.

7 We shouldn't rule out the currently far-out ideas about geoengineering. One or some of them could prove to be a low-cost way to mitigate climate change.

8 The politics is corrupt on both sides. The environmentalists are currently ascendant, but it's mostly figuring out ways for climate change companies and other organizations to make a nice living, whether they help or not. They deniers are mostly energy-dependent industries with their own vested interests. We can hope that the debate will produce some light, but little has come out so far. The use of the term "denier" highlights the problem.

9 Mubutu has as much right to a Hummer and air conditioning as I do (i.e., he has to pay for them, just as I do). Any global system has to give him the same emissions "quota" that it gives me. If i want to emit more than he does (at the moment I certainly do) then I should buy some of his quota - at the market price.