Iran

There are two ways the United States can overthrow the government of Iran:

1. Massive military attack
2. Withdraw from Iraq

Inflation in Iran is running at 17%. Lately, Iran is experiencing civil unrest because they don’t have enough refinery capacity to produce gasoline.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19457357/

If America withdraws from Iraq, it will force Iran to spend massive amounts of money to stabilize and influence their dangerous neighbor. I doubt the Iranian economy is strong enough to handle the burden of Iraq. Before long, either the Iranian government will fall or it will have to be nice to the rest of the world to get help. And that means opening the Iranian nuclear facilities to full inspections and dropping support for Hezbollah.

The current Iranian government is unlikely to make those compromises. That’s why the citizens will demand a new one. Iran isn’t a democracy, but it’s the second closest thing in the region, after Israel. The population of Iran is highly skewed toward young people. That alone spells change. I wouldn’t be surprised if Iran ended up staggering toward a more fully democratic process. The systems for democracy in Iran are already in place. All they need to do is remove the Mullah’s control over which candidates can run.

A violent revolution might be unnecessary. If enough people go to the streets, the Mullah’s in charge could decide it’s in their best interest to be more liberal about allowing who runs for office, and not overruling the politicians after they are elected. The people who get elected might find it in their best interest to get along with the United States and Europe. In a hundred years, I could imagine the Mullahs becoming more like the monarchy in Great Britain, with more moral authority than legal authority.

None of this is likely, because I don’t believe the United States will withdraw enough troops from Iraq to make any geopolitical difference to Iran. It’s just interesting to think about unintended consequences, since those seem to be the only kind of consequences we ever see.

Comments

[velix]

If you notice something, America always attack some country because of something. First attack Vietnam because they want to be show who is in charge, and that causes a lot of Americans and Vietnams die in that war because of policy of a goverment. It happens again with Irak, and it will continue again with some other country. Sad is that lot of people in America don't have to do much about that because goverment do all by themself.

[Ehsan]

I think that it is all over for the Mullahs. Inflation will derail that theocracy in the land of Aryans. Before next March (beginning of the Iranian new year) the regime will be facing some very serious challenging issues in taming the inflation, rampant unemployment, social explosions in rural areas, and the youth of that country that will simply take the streets and seal the fate of that dark ruthless regime in less than 48 hours. The count down is on for the Mullahs of Iran. In its replacement Iranians will have to choose between a secular Republic or a constitutional Monarchy just like it is in the UK or in Spain and where the crown is only a symbol of the unity of Iranians (2500 years of history cannot be swept under the rug - even if it is a Persian rug) and the parliament will rule through its elected officials. It is only then the slow painful healing proces will start and Iranians will go back to the business of taking care of Iranians (and not terrorism) just like they were doing before 1979 - before Jimmy Carter unleashed that nightmare called Khomeini and the Islamic Republic on Iran. There is nothing Islamic nor Republican in the current regime in Iran. The sad part is that for that notable achievment and others such as the deal with the North Korean regime over the nuclear issue under Clinton, Jimmy Carter received the Noble Peace Prize. Goes to show you that the world is completely screwed up. I know Iranians will come out of this nightmare since their history is a telling tale of their courage and resilience. Hopefully Jimmy Carter will be around to see his dark legacy to come to an ignominious end.

[Sondra]

Let's just hope someone in DC reads this.

[Susan Nasus]

Well, as terrified as I will be for my children - I can't help but admit that I've a grim curiousness about me when it comes to attacking Iran. I think it will lead to a quick end to the American Empire, the rest of the world will unite against us. That would be a quick sea change, But, currently we are the frogs in slowly heating to a boil water - economically the McUSA is clearly toast anyways. And as now the fattest, least literate, most superstitious people in the industrialized world . . . and the most heavily armed --- I think a fairly scary time is certain!

[Rich]

Man, you really are stupid.

It would be easyer to let Iraq go to the dogs, Iran will become a Theorcartic Dictatorship with everything good being ruthlessly oppressed. Ten years down the line the US and UK are being asked, by their own dumb-ass citizens, to go and make things better for the poor Iranians.

Back to square one.

[Zoran]

Sorry to break this to you, but you are a lousy political analyst. Not that I think what you say makes no sense, it's just that you don't really have the necessary info to make any useful comments.
You're a comics drawer and an antrepreneur! Live with it! :))

[MikeBert in Phoenix]

You may remember, Scott, that Iran already WAS lurching toward a more moderate, more democratic government several years ago. Khomeini had just bit the big one, and a new, fairly impotent and fairly moderate Ayatollah had taken the religious reins. There was no maniac reigning in the president's chair. What happened to that government?

Oh, that's right...the chimp in the Oval Office called them the "axis of evil" and re-re-re-inflamed all their anti-American, anti-West, anti-secular sentiment. Moron. He's the biggest and more blatant reason why this country needs a presidential recall process, popular vote elections, and an enforced end to the "duopoly" on serious political money.

[Azi]

Shyam, please get down off that high horse before you hurt yourself. Democracy is nothing to do with peace, you ignorant git. Democracy has a tendency towards peace, but that has nothing to do with its function, purpose or method.

Damn I woke up in a bad enough mood as it is without that kind of comment being the first thing I read in the morning.

Democracy tends towards peace because the majority of people tend to not want war. They prefer economic growth, stability and a better life. So when economics, democracy and cultural exports fail to achieve the expected result with a given competitor, the people are generally ok with war. Yes, this war has become unpopular due to mismanagement, but let's not forget the popularity that it started with.

[Shyam]

Hey- change the incredibly stupid and undemocratic regime of GW Bush first. Clean up your act before you start talking about democracy for others. With US' wonderful history of propagating military dictatorships- fat lot of guts you have to start talking about democracy.

Elect a democratic president,effective congress etc and take care of your own problems first before you start "cleaning up" the rest of the world. How stupid can you lot be ?

Shyam

[Jeff]

Just want to point out that the British monarchy has no moral authority either ..

[Jim]

===============
If America withdraws from Iraq, it will force Iran to spend massive amounts of money to stabilize and influence their dangerous neighbor.
===============

I can't decide if you're stupid, or incredibly stupid.

[Tommy]

Iran is becoming a democracy. It is only the threat of war that currently keeps the hardliners in power.

[Jim]

J Shope!
It fuckin A well ain't gonna be muslim

[admiral krunch]

Two things:
1. The people running the U.S. government don't want democracy in Iran or anywhere in the middle east.
2. Iran doesn't care if Iraq is stable, all in all a neighbor plunged into chaos is less dangerous than an organized one when your in a situation like the one in the middle east.
2b) Even if Iran did care about stabilizing Iraq it wouldn't cost them all that much, since they don't care if they have to massacre civilians right in front of the cameras, the powers that be have already shown that they don't care about brown people being slaughtered. (Darfur, Rwanda, Saddam)

[Kevin Kunreuther]

I so prefer the line of reasoning emanating from your reality distortion field than the total horseshit evacuated daily from the Bush/Cheney/Gonzales total reality disconnect.

[Gleetnorx]

another reason for us to get the hell out of there
and detox ourselves from oil

[putu mare]

I do not think Iran will crumble simply because of economic problems. Most of asian country has enormous strength to endure suffering, people will blame anything else than their leader. When our country, indonesia , had economic crisis ( 1997- now) we blamed the jews ( soros ), chinese people, I even read people blaming singapore.

[Adrian D.]

Jerry w.:

The loss to the world would be those innovations that came from *this* country. Wholesale bombing of countries on our part would give other nations reason to believe that we were on a conquest march. At some point the civilized world -- not wanting to be next -- would bomb us.

We should exercise restraint in the Middle East, not for the sake of the Middle East, but rather for our own sake; so that we do not become that which we despise.

[jerry w.]

If the U.S. were to have 'Nuked every country that started with the letters "IRA" or ended with the letters "STAN" (to our Canadian brothers, that would not jeopardize the STANley Cup) twenty years ago, what would have really been the loss to the world?

You could list, for example, any real (i.e., not leaches) medical or scientific progress, improvements in the quality of daily life, or treatment of human beings in or out of their country.

Before the righteous jump up to reply, please keep your suggestions limited to any contributions that have happened in, oh, lets say the past five hundred years, and were the result of someone who was actually still living in that country, not people from there that jumped ship to a safer country at their first opportunity.

I'm just asking......

http://boskolives.wordpress.com/

[Ed]

This is clearly why you are a cartoonist and not a foreign advisor.

[Harry Buttle]

Option 3. Blow up their remaining oil refineries with cheap cruise missiles. Keep them blown up until the Mullahs are deposed.

[Ivan]

The problem is terrorists and religious fanatics don't negotiate with anybody. They don't care if their country rot as long as they hold power, and worst, as religious fanatics they think God is on their side. If Iran gets economically ruined the mullahs will endorse the guilt on America, Europe, the students, Israel, even aliens from other planet if they happen to visit us during Iran's crisis. And they will have a lot of stupid and well armed fanatics with the means and desire to masacre students or anybody. I don't like my conclusion, but I think several countries must tell Iran or any other terrorist nation: behave or we will wipe you out of this world. Iran: If you decide to get your nuclear toys, remember who has the largest nuclear arsenal and the consequences.

[Grump]

Go IRAN. Iran and Pakistan should sell nukes to all countries so US thinks a lot before sending army there.

[Sigh]

Americans don't like terrorism. Americans are the victims of terrorism because the keep invading/bombing other countries.

How about this? STOP invading and bombing.

Oh I forgot, you can't. You need to keep stealing the resourses of other countries to support you economy. Americans above all peoples seem to be blind to the lessons of history. America is the most Powerful nation in the world...at the moment. Every empire that ever exist thought it would last forever. None have. Americas power will wane. Perhaps the Chinese will be the next to dominate. It doesn't matter wether or not China has nuclear weapons or what kind of government it has. America will not invade China because China is too strong. America only attacks nations that can't defend themselves. Candy from babies and so on. Please don't misunderstand me. I don't believe Americans are evil or any such nonsense, but I do believe the majority are jaw-droppingly naieve. The wonderful irony of something like the patriot act being passed in "the land of the free" in the name of freedom. With enough hot air about freedom and the good ole U.S of A you could get the American mob to back anything.

[geeh]

an article here all about that here!
http://s6.gladiatus.com/game/c.php?uid=38826