People often ask me how I come up with ideas. The fast answer is I’m just wired that way. But there’s also a large element of technique that I can teach you.
In some long-ago post, I described how I filter ideas with my body more than my mind. Internally, it feels like a slot machine with the little symbols changing in the three windows until some combination of three makes me literally “feel” something – a laugh, a wince, an ah-ha, whatever. It’s the ideas you can feel in your body that will engage others.
Once I have a topic that makes me feel something, I imagine myself as the reader and ask what my thought pattern would be on this topic. I start my writing process by acknowledging the most common view on the topic. And then I violate it. It’s the violating that makes it fun. The pattern looks like this: 1, 2, 3, 4, taupe.
I’ll give you an example from today. I saw an article in Time magazine about General Petraeus, the top military guy in Iraq. I skimmed the article, but a basic assumption was that he knows more about what’s happening in Iraq than you do. That seems obvious enough. And it made me think of all the comments on this blog from people who said our soldiers in Iraq know than anyone else more about how the war is going.
That’s the 1,2,3,4 part: Soldiers in Iraq know the most about the war effort in Iraq. It seems obvious. Okay, so that’s my topic. Here comes the creative part. I ask myself this question:
What if it’s the opposite?
That’s the universal creative question. It works on any topic. What if your doctor tried to kill you instead of heal you? What if your obedient dog considered you his slave? What if your H.R. director stopped pretending the company policies were designed with the greater good in mind?
Once I figure out the opposite position from the normal, I concoct an argument to defend it. You can make a case for just about any point of view. When that opposite argument turns out to be about 50% sensible, it’s often funny. When it is 90% sensible, it’s thought-provoking.
Let’s try the “opposite method” on this Iraq topic. What if the troops fighting in Iraq are the ones who know the LEAST about whether or not we’re winning the war? Could I make that case?
First, I’d point to the extensive, peer reviewed, science about cognitive dissonance. The main idea is that people who volunteer for situations that turn out bad will concoct elaborate mental justifications for why they did what they did. According to that theory, anyone who volunteered to defend the country, and found themselves in Iraq, would have low credibility on the question of “Is it working?” These folks would have the greatest access to the facts, while simultaneously having the least objectivity for evaluating those facts. In other words, even if the “surge” is not working, scientists would predict that a huge number of soldiers involved in the conflict would interpret the situation as a success in the making, or at least superior to all alternatives.
I love and respect the troops, but they are human.
Second, I’d point out that most of our information about the war comes from the generals. All leaders are unreliable. A general would be fired immediately if he said the surge was a bad idea. And if a general believed the surge might succeed, even as a long shot, he’d be a crappy leader if he told anyone his true assessment of the odds. So you can’t believe the leaders.
How about the individual troops? Cognitive dissonance aside, at the very least, they can report the facts, right? But soldiers only see the battles they’re in. If you hear from a soldier in a hopeless part of Iraq, he’s more likely to think a surge won’t work. If he’s assigned to a place where things are going well, he’s more likely to think that success could be duplicated. It’s the classic analogy of the three blind men trying to describe an elephant. One blind man feels the elephant’s trunk and says an elephant is just like a snake, etc. No soldier is in a position to see all of Iraq.
Many of you will read this opposite-argument and say, “Yeah, I see your points, but still, the soldiers are the best source we have.” Okay, let’s say 60% of the soldiers think the surge isn’t working and 40% think it is. Unless you know how many soldiers are having cognitive dissonance, or how many are suppressing a negative opinion in case someone finds out, you have no useful information whatsoever.
Go.
This is a test, please ignore
Posted by: George W. Lucas | July 11, 2007 at 01:54 PM
"Adrian D, why is it so hard for *you* to believe that the war is a good thing done by bad people for bad reasons?"
Because I believe unprovoked invasion to be a *bad* thing. If any other nation launches such an unprovoked attack, we denounce it as evil. An act does not become good just because our nation is the perpetrator.
Posted by: Adrian D. | July 09, 2007 at 09:00 AM
Creative thinking and deductive reasoning don't necessarily have to exclude the other. But it could also be the reason people tend to cross their eyes after failing to convince me that the lemmings are right.
Posted by: Real Live Girl | July 07, 2007 at 07:55 PM
Let's also point out that a) No one is going to allow anyone to interview soldiers who are in an area that they are losing, and b) those that are losing will not want to admit it, for fear of being the only ones losing.
No matter what, either the military leaders or the individual troops themselves will want to put the best face on things. Just because they might have the best info does not mean they will give it to us freely.
Posted by: Erik | July 07, 2007 at 01:12 PM
Most people are lazy and go with the majority view. Creativity, now that takes thought, and very few people actually think.
Posted by: Virgin | July 07, 2007 at 07:24 AM
Adrian D, why is it so hard for *you* to believe that the war is a good thing done by bad people for bad reasons?
Posted by: Azi | July 07, 2007 at 02:14 AM
I like "1, 2, 3, 4, taupe" thinking. When I let my brain shift into me-as-a-five-year-old-kid mode, I get bombarded with thoughts like that. They are great for disarming any adults in the room into laughing--no embellishment needed.
Personally, I believe your assessment of the troops' opinions to be right on the nose. At best, the warfighter sees the war through his or her own personal soda straw. How often do they, and Bush's adherents here at home, become vociferously and obnoxiously defensive in extolling Bush, the invasion, and occupation because they simply can't bear to face the fact that America destroyed Iraq and murdered all those people for oil? I find it much easier to believe reports that present as many sides of the story as possible.
Posted by: XX EE | July 06, 2007 at 08:57 PM
Clever, clever.
Indeed, we can never really know for sure what's going on in the rest of the world.
So now that we know that we'll never really know, what should we do? Well, I suggest that we stop wasting time worrying about what we DON'T know and start spending time doing things that we DO know will add good stuff to the world.
I mean, why waste time worrying when you can spend that time doing something good and healthy for yourself or others? We don't need to be political scientists or sociologists with three letter acronyms after our names to know that we can do all kinds of simple things that improve the lives of our friends, families, and communities. I mean, volunteering at a senior citizen center or daycare isn't rocket science. And neither is picking up some trash as we're walking around town, or lending a feel-good movie to a friend who's feeling stressed out lately. Improving the quality of life for the people around us will have domino effect for the rest of the world. And who knows, that person you help out may be the person who does actually know how to create peace in the Middle East, and your generosity may be just the thing they need to put their plan into action.
So yeah, do good stuff, and don't worry too much about the rest.
Posted by: Turil | July 06, 2007 at 06:27 PM
My humor train, please have your ticket ready.
One of the most common names in Southern California:
Jose.
Pronounced "Hose-Ay"
Slow it down and in Canadian-speak it would seem like the answer to:
What is the tool that firemen put out fires with?
I flip it around into:
How come we never hear about his younger brother, Hose-"B"?
There, I've connected our neighbors to the North and the South.
......
And for using a soldier's perspective as to how things are going with the war...
Crap, I derailed again.
http://boskolives.wordpress.com/
Posted by: jerry w. | July 06, 2007 at 05:54 PM
You know, between your discussion about cognitive dissonance here and the handful of posts you've written about positive thinking and happiness and such, I bet you'd really enjoy reading psychologist Daniel Gilbert's book "Stumbling On Happiness." I think you'd find it a very intriguing and entertaining.
Posted by: Josh Mock | July 06, 2007 at 02:43 PM
Yes
I am fell more +ve on Creating new things. In earth Man has only that have this much of Creative Mind.
A Docters & Expert say we not utilize our full Creativity in maay matters. If we use it " We Chage The World "
www.hindimoviesong.net
Posted by: hindimoviesong | July 06, 2007 at 02:39 PM
Mark:
I would suggest that your post is only an attempt to resolve cognitive dissonance. You find it painful to think that we could be doing wrong in Iraq. On what are you basing the claim that the insurgents are not representative of the desires of the populace? Because Bush says so? Because you're sure this country never does anything wrong? I know that if a foreign country was occupying us -- no matter how good its official policies were -- I would want the occupiers removed. That would even hold true if the occupiers had removed Bush and Cheney (whom I believe to be detrimental to the country). Why should we believe that the belief that occupiers should get out is not representative of the Iraqi population?
The idea of "we put him there, now we are responsible for fixing it" is not consistently applied. Another reason to believe the claim to be specious is the fact that it was not used at the onset. Remember? The claim was that he was developing WMDs.
Although I am not hopeful, I know we need a president who can admit "I messed up." I was not impressed with Clinton's "mistakes were made." If Bush really wanted me to take him seriously, he could have said "I truly believed Saddam was developing WMDs. I was wrong. I apologize for the harm that as resulted from this mistake."
Posted by: Adrian D. | July 06, 2007 at 01:33 PM
That's a clever way to look at arguments; it reveals many other facets about it.
This process sounds kind of like Parliamentary government: there's an Opposition in Parliament that, no matter what the Majority Government says, the Opposition has to make a counter-argument, no matter what it is. I'm not sure if that makes it work better or not.
Posted by: John Marshall | July 06, 2007 at 01:17 PM
And now we know why you don't believe in God. You took what you already knew internally, flipped it around and now are spending the rest of your life looking for reasons why God does not exist. Hey that is creative...
Posted by: happy | July 06, 2007 at 01:16 PM
===========
People often ask me how I come up with ideas.
===========
Why not just tell them the truth?
1 -- Your Dilbert ideas are emailed to you by people who actually work for a living.
2 -- Your political ideas come from whatever DNC talking points are being parroted on CNN that week.
Do not be ashamed.
Posted by: Jim | July 06, 2007 at 12:46 PM
How can one be creative by following a recipy?
Unless you hide the recipy. Some people say the secret of creativity is the art of hiding the source.
Posted by: Joe2 | July 06, 2007 at 12:29 PM
A magician should never reveal his secrets Scott. Coincidentally however your 1,2,3,4 pattern is exactly how I picture Fox News and to a lesser extent (but not much lesser) CNN coming up with their topics of discussion. As an illustration: How public healthcare systems lead to acts of terrorism.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pMu6wCqdeyQ
Posted by: David | July 06, 2007 at 11:55 AM
Mr. Adams; I really love your blog, but a few of these comments have gotten me riled up, and I feel like I should respond.
First, to Borjan. I graduated high school with an 1140 SAT score, so i'm no genius, but I am certainly not stupid. My reasons for joining were smart as well as sincere. I joined out of a combination of my senses of patriotism, duty, and honor. I love this country and it's freedoms, and protecting them for a time was a small sacrifice. I also joined because the ARMY could provide me with a financial base to put myself through college with. This was important because, contrary to popular thought, not all conservatives are born rich. I joined, and it was an informed and well thought-out choice. My father is a double major from JMU with a Master's degree in theology (yes, he is a preacher) and my mother is also a JMU graduate. They did not brainwash me nor influence me in any way.
So, the fact that you can't think of a single "smart" reason to join tells me that you have never sat back and thought about how many men have died so that this country has freedom of religion, German is not the national language, and, of course, freedom of speech, which allows people like you to make blanket statements about the uneducated state of our armemd forces. Four of the nine men in my squad have college degrees, and several of the rest of us are steadily plugging away towards ours. Don't make statements about soldiers you know nothing about. In return, I won't presume that you are a bleeding-heart liberal absorbing all of the offal that the John Kerrys and the Tim Robbins of the world produce, and then puking it back up with a little of your personal invective to make it sound original.
Second, to Mr. Adams. Your statement and presumption about the "blind men-elephant" principle is, in many ways, probably true. A lot of soldiers don't get the big picture. But I have worked both as a squad leader in an infantry company and as a Battle NCO in a TOC (tactical operations center, where all the intel comes in), so I have seen the war from several levels.
It's a little early yet to say that the surge isn't working, don't you think? The last of five additional Army brigades didn't arrive until mid-june, less than a month ago. Sectarian violence in Baghdad has dropped dramatically (currently less than half of pre-surge levels), and Al-Qaeda operativees centered in Baghdad have fled for anywhere safe. Only time will truly tell, but why don't we wait until all of the facts are in before we start throwing around suppositions that the surge hasn't worked.
PS - Love the strip, love the blog. Your take on sunburn (especially the being raped by carrots bit) had me on the floor, in tears. Keep it up!
Posted by: SSG. Michael Hebron | July 06, 2007 at 11:48 AM
To Borjan
Your post reeks of self-satisfaction. As the old adage goes, ignorance is bliss.
Are you aware that members of the military are better educated than the average person in the USA? That every officer has a college degree (as do many NCOs), and many have advanced degree? That the MINIMUM IQ for an infantry man is over 110? That the average IQ of a special ops soldier is around 120?
Of course not. You are just stuck in the perception of soldiers being people with no other options in life - the old "go to war or go to jail", unaware that ended about 30 years ago. Perhaps if you opened your mind you would realize that people join the military for all kinds of reasons - and patriotism is one of the biggest one.
Sign Me
US Army Major
OIF Vet
OJE Vet
Posted by: Dave | July 06, 2007 at 11:06 AM
It is my considered opinion that you started with:
The troops fighting in Iraq are the ones who know the LEAST about whether or not we’re winning the war. Could I make that case?
...and created this post around it.
Posted by: Sondra | July 06, 2007 at 10:30 AM
Mark wrote (perhaps with some assistance as most of the words are spelled correctly and the syntax is almost right):
"I also have an IQ of 156 as last test. I would love to hear Jerry's since all soldiers are not very bright."
Mark, I fall into a slightly lower but similar range (to avoid a pissing contest), but it's enough to understand that the signature line always follows ones post on typepad, it doesn't precede it. Have a look at yours to confirm this.
What you're talking about is someone else's posting.
And, from one (brighter than the average) veteran to another, peace out!
http://boskolives.wordpress.com/
Posted by: jerry w. | July 06, 2007 at 10:19 AM
Don't forget that many soldiers are not allowed to divulge any facts about success rates. This generally applies to the most well informed soldiers. So the reliability rate drops again from military censorship (this isn't bad - just bad for reliability.)
And we have to evaluate what "going well" means to a soldier. Does it mean "Americans didn't die today" or does it mean "lots of Iraqis died today" or does it mean "we made real strides towards forming a stable, self-reliant government?" Chances are a soldier's idea of success has little to do with what the American public feels is the reason for having sent them there. So even a report of success or failure may be the opposite of what we hope that it would be.
Posted by: Scott Alan Miller | July 06, 2007 at 10:15 AM
I served for 8 years in the Army, and only got out to help my ailing mother. I also have an IQ of 156 as last test. I would love to hear Jerry's since all soldiers are not very bright. Maybe he can have an intelligent conversation with John Kerry. The search for "truth" is a wonderful pursuit, but i the context of Jerry's post, it sounds self centered. most philosophies expound of the ultimate truth be found in self sacrifice. Be glad that there are people who are willing to die to defend the freedoms you take fro granted. These same people will also fight to extend these freedoms to others. We helped keep Saddam in power, it was our responsibility to fix our mistake. At this point it doesn't matter if going into Iraq was right or wrong, what does matter is that at this point it would be criminal of us to just pull out and abandon them. Most Iraqi's are thankful for what we have done, the insurgents do not represent the majority. Yes the Iraqi's would like us to leave eventually, but not before they are ready to stand on their own. Jerry I would caution you against making blanket statements witout knowing the facts. I have served, and yes there are some soldiers that are dumber than a box of rocks, but most are intelligent, dedicate people doing something they believe in. Just because that belief differs from yours, or they chose a path for their lives that you would not choose for yourself, does not make them less intelligent.
"People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf."
George Orwell
Posted by: Mark | July 06, 2007 at 09:14 AM
What worries me more: if you poll "Did you die in Iraq" via anonamous questionares you will get somes "Yes" answers, and not all of them will be obtuse answers.
Posted by: DD | July 06, 2007 at 08:51 AM
I enjoy how seemlessly you went from "People often ask me how I get my ideas" to "the war in Iraq is pointless and already lost" under the guise of being helpful.
I take it that this is part of your hypnosis "expertise."
Yeah, I'm sure the generals and soldiers in Iraq have no idea what is going on there. Better to get military insight from a cartoonist in California who works 45 minutes a day. It all makes sense now. You're a frickin' genius.
Posted by: Jim | July 06, 2007 at 08:42 AM