In yesterday's post I described an argument that reminded people of something called Pascal's Wager.
In a nutshell, Pascal was a dude who argued you should consider Christianity because if it's true, the downside of not believing is eternal Hell. But if you become a Christian and there's no God, all you've lost is your Sunday mornings. (Here I am simplifying.)
Many of my blog readers left comments alluding to the well-known "flaws" in Pascal's argument. Here’s a handy list of them.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal's_Wager#Rebuttals
Chief among the alleged flaws in Pascal’s argument is that you still have to pick the correct religion among many, or else you go to Hell anyway.
Sure. But picking any religion that promises salvation slightly improves your odds over picking an option that doesn’t. You're still probably doomed, given your bad religion-picking skills, but a one-in-a-million chance of reducing the risk of eternal Hell is a move worth taking, mathmatically speaking.
Another noted "flaw" in Pascal's wager is that you can't rule out the possibility that only skeptics are spared from Hell. Perhaps, it is argued, God loves the spunky fact-loving personality of skeptics and saves them alone, or saves them in the greatest percentage.
That argument passes the math test, but does it pass the sniff test? It’s a viewpoint that exists only as a debate tool. While we can't rule it out, surely it is the worst bet if you must pick a theory of God. No rational person on earth, including skeptics, has concluded that God prefers skeptics over believers.
Personally, if I were more rational, and less focused on immediate gratification, I would become a moderate, peace-loving Muslim. My reasoning is that Islam has the best chance of becoming the dominant world religion in the future, and therefore probably has God’s backing, if he exists. The Muslim belief that death is sometimes a good thing is a huge advantage in a future where weapons are improving, and the only thing keeping people from using them is fear of death.
If you believe God exists, the smart money says he’s backing the team with the best strategy and long term viability. Based on what I see today, I’m betting on Islam being the only religion in a thousand years. Once you can build your own nuke from stuff you buy online, don’t be betting on the Buddhists.
I realize it's unscientific to try and compare one absurdity to another. But if you assume our perceptions are often flawed, you have to allow the possibility that some apparent absurdities are due to our limited powers of perception. So, for example, while the notion of a loving God who allows eternal damnation seems absurd, it is less absurd than assuming the world is run by invisible unicorns, or that God discriminates against those who believe in him.
The God theory has built into it the assumption we are not bright enough to understand the mind of an omnipotent being. That sounds reasonable. Hey, if God exists, and he does things different that I would, just maybe the problem is on my end. If you believe in God, the apparent absurdities have a reasonable explanation, even if wrong.
But what’s the reasonable explanation for God preferring skeptics? If God appreciates reasoning skills, he can’t be too impressed by the fact he created the entire Universe and skeptics still can’t find any good clues he exists. God would only be impressed by skeptics if God did NOT exist. You can’t top that for absurdity.
Back to Islam. It also has the most satisfying answer to the multiple prophet issue. If we assume God speaks through prophets, as all God-oriented religions do, then how can you be sure the last prophet finished the job? Islam gives us Mohammed, the "seal of the prophets," and promises that God intends him to be the last one. That’s a tidy package.
All the other religions seem to leave open the possibility that God has a few more prophets up his sleeve. If you bet on one of those other religions, you can't know for sure if you're living by God's first draft or his finished manuscript.
Picking the "right" religion is a long shot no matter how hard you try. But if rational thought has any value at all, it's in narrowing down options and improving our odds of making good choices. Rational thought hasn't led anyone to conclude that there's a God who only saves people who don't believe he exists. We can't rule it out, but can't we rate its likelihood compared to a God who prefers that his lumps of clay hold him in higher esteem than their own eye crud?
I’d prefer to make all of my decisions on the basis of peer reviewed science. But I don’t have that option when considering the great beyond. So I settle for looking at the competing absurdities and picking the one that seems relatively least absurd.
There are other arguments against Pascal’s wager, but none of them looked any stronger than the ones I mentioned here.
Pascal's wager was designed to make people consider the importance of grappling with the question of a Christian God. That's not my argument. I simply borrowed the math part of his argument and followed it to its logical conclusion: The most rational worldview is moderate Islam.
And since I am not a Muslim, I must conclude that I am not rational. I sure hope God likes moist robots.
I wrote this at 3 AM. I won’t even pretend it makes sense.
[Update: Early commenters are noting that someone who only pretends to believe, to get into heaven, won't fool God. But the science strongly supports the notion that going through the motions of believing will, in most normal people, turn them into believers in fact. It's the same principle as why people who join a political party start to believe most of the positions of the party. -- Scott]
don't waste time in church just trying to buy a ticket to the hereafter.
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(If you believe God exists, the smart money says he’s backing the team with the best strategy and long term viability.) That is quite an assumption, one major hole with that idea is that very different religions are going to appear to be “ahead” in different times a places.
A much better choice would be Catholicism. It promises an eternal afterlife, it is very clear that you will not got this afterlife if you follow any other religion or Christian sect. In addition, you can still be accepted by other more tolerant religions. If god is a Mormon, Protestant and though you’d never guess it with our current political situation even Muslim you have a very good chance of avoiding hell.
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Posted by: Jeotvecurecob | September 14, 2007 at 12:36 PM
Asalamalaykom Scott~
Wishing you peace :)
For years, I have carried around this quote from you, "At age 30, it became clear that doing rational things would never get me there. I made a conscious decision to act irrationally."
That quote helped bring me to Islam.
Now, I hope to help bring YOU to Islam.
You can actually be fun and funny AND be Muslim. You can still be creative and part of modern media. Really! You can still be YOU. The world needs you, Scott.
But, maybe you need Islam.
Follow your own words to "act irrationally" and follow your heart.
I am following my heart and I am following Islam. I invite you to join me and the one billion others who understand.
Posted by: Yosra | September 10, 2007 at 07:28 AM
"So I settle for looking at the competing absurdities and picking the one that seems relatively least absurd."
Ah! This principle is what I would call the Occam's Razor.
The question is then if we should include the hypothesis that there is no god among the choices.
As Carl Sagan, God bless his memory, said: “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof”.
Why is it that not a single one of the religions of the world can produce a single piece of evidence of what it claims is true? Believers claims that there are a lot of evidences, but they never hold up to scrutiny. Isn’t that strange? Over all these years, not a single piece of evidence? Imagine how easy it would be for a god to produce such evidence. If we could have for instance, a man that could walk on water? If that too much to ask for, I would be happy with a smaller miracle too.
Posted by: Occam | August 13, 2007 at 06:58 AM
"That argument passes the math test, but does it pass the sniff test? It’s a viewpoint that exists only as a debate tool. While we can't rule it out, surely it is the worst bet if you must pick a theory of God. No rational person on earth, including skeptics, has concluded that God prefers skeptics over believers."
Sure, some would argue that a god that values skepticism is far less likely than one that values faith, but what evidence do we have that this is the case? Only the word of theologians (and lemmings who follow the less-sophisticated theologians of antiquity) who have no more evidence than you or I, can't agree on anything else, and would have to go get a real job if people didn't believe. That, Mr. Adams, does not "pass the sniff test".
Of course, it would be stupid to disbelieve in a god that probably doesn't exist simply for the purpose of currying favor with it, but without evidence that faith is more favorable than skepticism, it doesn't make any more sense to believe for the same reason. It may be true that the argument "exists only as a debate tool", but that doesn't make it any less valid than the opposing argument. Such is the nature of Reductio ad Absurdum.
Posted by: whosawhatsis? | August 11, 2007 at 03:42 AM
"That's why I'm an atheist and not an agnostic. I'm against this". Gore Vidal:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=epn7QG9GLW0&mode=related&search=Gore%20Vidal
Posted by: Freeman | August 09, 2007 at 09:43 AM
Scott Sez:
Sure. But picking any religion that promises salvation slightly improves your odds over picking an option that doesn’t. You're still probably doomed, given your bad religion-picking skills, but a one-in-a-million chance of reducing the risk of eternal Hell is a move worth taking, mathmatically speaking.
You're cheating here, restricting choice to merely the millions of versions of god already conceptualized by people. What about the INFINITE versions of 'god', along with associated required beliefs that have not been articulated yet. For example - God created the universe in 'n' seconds, and if you don't believe in the correct value of n, you go to hell.
So sorry, Pascal's Lottery is completely rigged. No matter what, if a vengefull god exists, Probability(going to Hell)=1 and Probability(anything else)=0. You lose. Muhahahaha!
Now doesn't that Atheism with the absence of afterlife sound so much better? :-)
Posted by: Stagyar zil Doggo | August 08, 2007 at 02:55 PM
Scott Sez:
Sure. But picking any religion that promises salvation slightly improves your odds over picking an option that doesn’t. You're still probably doomed, given your bad religion-picking skills, but a one-in-a-million chance of reducing the risk of eternal Hell is a move worth taking, mathmatically speaking.
You're cheating here, restricting choice to merely the millions of versions of god already conceptualized by people. What about the INFINITE versions of 'god', along with associated required beliefs that have not been articulated yet. For example - God created the universe in 'n' seconds, and if you don't believe in the correct value of n, you go to hell.
So sorry, Pascal's Lottery is completely rigged. No matter what, if a vengefull god exists, Probability(going to Hell)=1 and Probability(anything else)=0. You lose. Muhahahaha!
Now doesn't that Atheism with the absence of afterlife sound so much better? :-)
Posted by: Stagyar zil Doggo | August 08, 2007 at 02:48 PM
BTW, check out the vitriol, derision, and insults that pour forth from atheist blogs (see http://scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/2007/08/scott_adams_wanks_again.php) when anyone dares to start a discussion on these things. Admittedly, some of Scott's claims are not logically defendable, perhaps even wrong or superficial. But talk about poking a mad dog! Atheists are angry bastards sometimes. I guess that's true of all ideologues, religious ones especially.
Scott Adams is now officially deranged, brainless, lacking in mental capacity, a producer of absurdities and drivel, a professional troll, and perhaps even a (lapsed) Catholic.
But only about a third to a half of the comments are mocking ad hominems. I did, however, notice some trends among the critics:
1. They seem to worship PZ Miers
2. They fail to understand the difference between Scott's open ponderings and authoritative doctrinal pronouncements of truth (which they seem to think Scott is doing)
3. They fail to recognize or evaluate the differences between faith claims - that is, is something Jesus said more likely or believable than something the Flying Spaghetti Monster said? To them, all faith claims are equally unprovable, and so equally ridiculous. However, I disagree with this superficial and anti-intellectual approach, and discussed the idea of "proof" in this comment: http://www.twoorthree.net/2007/08/atheists-should.html#comment-78703598
4. They fail to recognize that Scott is eminently successful, and could probably care less about the armchair critics who want to call him a loser because he exercises his freedom to lazily explore ideas.
I think his willingness to ask heretical questions (heretical to the materialist atheists) is laudable. Darwinism, evolutionism, and modern scientism need to be taken down a peg due to their hubris, over-reaching, suppression of dissent, and lack of graciousness in discussion.
Posted by: seeker | August 08, 2007 at 11:50 AM
Mike wrote:
"I wager dilbert doesn't exist."
Well, the consequences of being wrong on that item are, well, inconsequential. But as Scott well argued, the consequences of being wrong about hell are infinite. So even if they are infinitesimally possible, the fact that the impact of this slight chance coming to pass is worth serious investigation.
In fact, as a project manager, this is how you quantify risk. You multiply the likelihood of an adverse event by the potential impact - the higher the PRODUCT, the more critical that risk is.
And like every good project manager, you should mitigate those critical risks by either reducing the likelihood or the impact.
In the case of faith and hell, you can only reduce the likelihood of going to hell by believing, or at least, as Pascal would recommend, acting AS IF you believed in the chance that this would lead to actual belief. I am not sure it works like that, but it might.
As it was told to the great John Wesley when he was having doubts before giving a sermon, "If you lack faith, preach faith until you have it."
Posted by: seeker | August 08, 2007 at 09:51 AM
I believe man made God, outta ignorance and fear
If God made man, then why the hell would he put us here?
I thought he's supposed to be the all loving
The same God who let Hitler put the Jews in the oven
Posted by: Catsandbeer.com | August 08, 2007 at 09:50 AM
I wager dilbert doesn't exist.
Posted by: mike | August 07, 2007 at 08:42 PM
Anonymous said:
"if he truly loves us as much as postulated in the bible then we should all be going to heaven regardless of our mistakes."
The problem with this view is that it only acknowledges one half of God's nature - that of love. The other half is truth/justice. This is why the scriptures say "Grace AND truth met in Jesus Christ."
You see, it is not loving to ignore justice for the man who raped and killed your daughter. If God said "look, out of love, I forgive him" you would rightly say "that is unjust!"
Love also demands justice. The Xian message is that God forgives, not by avoiding justice, but by meting out the punishment on his innocent son. This is why we are required to believe - because otherwise, we are affirming that we deserve forgiveness without justice, which is unloving and unrighteous.
Radiohead writes:
"So to sum up, being a good person all your life is not enough to get you into Heaven, you have to ACKNOWLEDGE God!!! Hey, sounds like God has an ego! Was he a rock star in his youth?? What a load of BS!"
The reason being good all your life is not good enough is because God's generous path allows those who CAN'T be good enough to be saved from the judgment they deserve. And in order to disallow braggarts (See Ephesians 2:8-9) and the self-righteous, he says that those who try to earn forgiveness with their good works are (a) rejecting God's loving offer of forgiveness, (b) misunderstanding that they are guilty like everyone else, not better than others (Romans 2:10-12), (c) misunderstand what good really is (by comparing themselves to others instead of God himself) (Luke 18:18-24), and (d) not realizing that, while God does not demand our allegiance, he deserves it because he OWNS us (as our creator), but does not force us to obey like robots.
Additionally, the person who is trying to earn their right standing with God through good works is actually under a terrible burden, esp. as they realize how imperfectly they keep the law. God's offer of forgiveness through the justice meted out on Christ allows us to do good, not out of fear of not doing enough, but out of greatfulness that we don't have to earn anything!
As far as God having an ego, it has oft been said of Jesus that his outrageous claims such as "if you have seen Me, you have seen the Father" and "no one comes to the Father except by Me" meant that he was either a Lunatic (with a huge ego), a Liar, a Legend (people made such sayings up after he was gone to make him look more important than he actually claimed to be), or he was actually LORD, and was telling the truth. So if God really is God, all demands have little to do with ego, and more to do with the truth of the situation. That he is both creator and judge of all, and there is nothing we can do, if we are sane, other than to agree with the truth and reality of the situation.
As it is said, all failure to acknowledge reality is insanity.
Posted by: seeker | August 07, 2007 at 12:07 PM
Question with boldness even the existence of a god; because if there be one he must approve of the homage of reason more than that of blindfolded fear.
-Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Peter Carr, August 10, 1787
Are you saying that Jefferson was not rational, or just not human?
Posted by: Michael | August 07, 2007 at 11:48 AM
Scott, you make yet another mistake by trying to rationalize out what God wants: you make arguments about how God likes this or that. But the reality is that God could want ANYTHING AT ALL. Nothing is "more likely" or "more rational" than any other possibility, because nothing at all constrains God's motives: they could simply be so far beyond your understanding that they could be anything. From the perspective of pure metaphysics, it's exactly as likely that God is a big joker who sends to hell only those that eat cheerios for breakfast as it is that there is no hell at all, or that god operates like Christians believe. The more powerful and obscure you make God, the more infinities and inscrutables you tack on, the less anyone can say about what God's true purposes are.
Posted by: plunge | August 07, 2007 at 10:36 AM
You make a valid point in Islam = Death but you did forget to mention the bombs and virgins.
Posted by: @Rob | August 07, 2007 at 09:55 AM
Who cares, I'm one of your HOT/DUMB fans that is thanking his Super model parents that there is some one like Scott adams to make him laugh... BE MORE FUNNY,FUNNY MAN... LOL
I love it ALL...KEEP IT UP...
Posted by: ARTIE STRAUSS | August 07, 2007 at 09:48 AM
So to sum up, being a good person all your life is not enough to get you into Heaven, you have to ACKNOWLEDGE God!!!
Hey, sounds like God has an ego! Was he a rock star in his youth?? What a load of BS!
Posted by: Radiohe4d | August 06, 2007 at 11:29 PM
...and one of the most absurd notions of all? The fact that, one one hand, you can have someone who believes in God, sins but then confesses, and he is accepted into "Heaven", yet someone who doesn't believe in God but lives a completely moral and selfless life and never breaks a law goes to hell simply for not believing. What a joke! Sounds more like a marketing gimmick to me!!!
Posted by: Radiohe4d | August 06, 2007 at 11:23 PM
well shouldn't it be more along the lines of, if god created us all and loves us all and jesus dies for our sins, then don't we all have a green card into heaven? or does god just like believers so that his ego can be satisfied? if he truly loves us as much as postulated in the bible then we should all be going to heaven regardless of our mistakes.
Posted by: anonymous | August 06, 2007 at 09:45 PM