Can we ever be sure about anything in life?
Is a feeling of 99% certainty enough to say you “know” something? Or do you need to feel 99.9999999999% certain before you’re willing to commit?
If you say you need to be 100% certain, you don’t understand how human brains work. It’s common for the human brain to be certain about things that later turn out to be completely false. It happens all the time, to everyone. If it has ever happened to you, then you know you can’t trust your own powers of certainty.
This brings me to atheists. In order to be certain that God doesn’t exist, you have to possess a godlike mental capacity – the ability to be 100% certain. A human can’t be 100% certain about anything. Our brains aren’t that reliable. Therefore, to be a true atheist, you have to believe you are the very thing that you argue doesn’t exist: God.
Perhaps you will argue that being 99.999999% certain God doesn’t exist is just as good as being 100% sure. That strikes me as bad math. As other philosotainers have famously noted, a small chance of spending eternity in Hell has to be taken seriously. Eternity is a long time.
Let me put this in perspective. You might be willing to accept a 10% risk of going skiing and getting hurt, but you wouldn’t accept a 10% risk of a nuclear war. The larger the potential problem, the less risk you are willing to tolerate.
An eternity in Hell is the largest penalty there could ever be. So while you might not worry about a .00000000001% chance of ending up in Hell, you can’t deny the math. .00000000001% of eternity is a lot longer than your entire mortal life. Infinitely longer.
I sometimes call myself an atheist because it’s too hard to explain Spinoza’s version of god. And it’s too hard to explain that agnosticism is the only intellectually defensible position.
Are there any atheists out there?
[Update Bonus Question: What's the difference between a "weak atheist" and an agnostic? Don't both subscribe to uncertainty?]
http://www.rock-explosion.com/images/finger.jpg
the *MODEL* of mental health:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=zBEbfiaZTfc
"Look at the ANGLE OF THE KEY....see that, see that...."
what an idiot this Randi is.....a REAL CRITICAL THINKER.....
for all the victims of Randi's monstrous idea.......
Visit:
http://www.centerforinquiry.net/forums/viewthread/3283/P0/
to see how we stopped James Randi's fraudulent MILLION DOLLAR PARANORMAL challenge.....
watch carefully the consequences of Randi's *idea*…..
For over 40 years James Randi Zwigert (is this even a REAL NAME?) has had total control over who and how the testing was conducted, yet despite all this he has terminated the challenge.
The ONLY REASON why the challenge was stopped is because he lost and refused to pay.
Apparently, Randi likes to break the rules when it serves him:
"14. This prize will continue to be offered until it is awarded. Upon the death of James Randi, the administration of the prize will pass into other hands, and it is intended that it continue in force. "
Great force.....it's over......
where is my MILLION DOLLARS, you LITTLE *NO-NAME* FRAUD
PS: Almost Forgot: Love the IRONY of the *BULLSHIT* sign over Randi's ugly head....
Posted by: davidmabus | May 01, 2008 at 11:53 PM
I am an atheist, and I very readily admit that I can not know if there is a God. I would say that it usually the people who believe in God who are the ones who are unable to admit to this same uncertainty.
Posted by: Matt | April 20, 2008 at 03:10 PM
Some semi-random simplistic thoughts of mine that probably aren't original:
What percentage of the world's population practices the same religion as their parents?
How would religious practices change if children were prohibited from practicing or choosing any religion until they became adults, and then had the freedom in their culture to choose among any of the religions of the world, or none at all?
Did religions simply come about because people long ago could not explain the science behind the world around them? We can't explain why water is falling from the sky, so God must be doing that. We can't explain why molten rock is spewing out of that mountain, so God must be doing that. We can't grasp that we're standing on a very large spherical object, so God must have made the earth flat. Ok, so God made the Earth round.
We don't feel the Earth spinning, so it must be stationary and God made the sun go around it. Ok, so the Earth is spinning and it goes around the sun. Maybe I'll take your word for it if it's cool with the Church. I don't understand astronomical gravitational forces, so God must have designed it that way.
I don't know what those small lights in the night sky are, so God must have put them there. I don't know about my ancestors more than a few generations back, but they all had to have been humans just like me, right? Someone had to put the first humans here on earth, and God is a likely choice since he did all that other cool stuff. Since I can't see evolution during my lifetime I don't understand it, so God must have put all other forms of life on Earth around the same time as he put the first humans here, give or take a week.
I can't explain how our planet, solar system, galaxy, or universe came to be, so God must have created it all.
There will always be things we don't yet know about our world, but future generations will know these things and find our current theories amusing.
Posted by: DJ | April 08, 2008 at 08:26 PM
You are all Godless heathens and you WILL burn in Hell if you don't change that. Athiests are nothing more than cynical assholes who think they're the happiest people on earth but are really miserable. And for that, they have to make everyone else miserable. You believe that just because the world's imperfect that God doesn't exist. I used to be an Athiest, I admit that. God was kind enough to change my ways. I don't believe God exists, I KNOW God exists. I could spend all day telling you my experiences, but knowing what Athiests are like, you'd all probably try to explain it away with your "scientific theories". Athiesism isn't a religion or belief, it's a DISEASE. You're reading this for your amusement, thinking I'm stupid or dull, but try something called BELIEVING and believe me when I tell you that if you don't find your faith, you will be damned. Honestly, what is this world coming to when parents allow their children to grow up to become heathens. And by the way, how do you not see the pattern that you're athiests and your life sucks?
A word from the much wiser than you
-Steve, CATHOLIC
Posted by: Steve | March 31, 2008 at 07:24 PM
Hi,
Belief by definition does not require or need certainty.
I dont "know" whether God exists, and for that matter nor does anybody else.
I do know what I believe, and I believe that God does not exist, so I am an atheist.
Other people are perfectly entitled to have a different view and say they do believe that God exists..but in both cases it is just a belief it is not "knowing".
Those who describe themselves as agnostic are in my view simply saying they don't know what they believe. Which logically is not a defendable position.
Harry
Posted by: Harry | March 16, 2008 at 05:37 AM
There is a first principle of creation, something does not come from nothing, which makes the big bang theory flawed, and so flawed that it makes science seem almost foolish, but its to be expected, as science is nothing more than describing things based on visual evidence and habit. No matter what God is, as a prime mover or inherent state of being, it does not condemn to hell, it does not have the means or the programming to condemn or act in any way that would be human. To evolve is to create, something does not evolve from nothing.
Posted by: John | February 01, 2008 at 07:06 AM
Well done!
You really got people going.
Obviously you can't know anything for certain.
It follows logically that if there is a creation, there must be a creator.
Posted by: vincent | January 31, 2008 at 09:03 AM
Here are three quotes from my quote collection that relate to atheists:
It is an insult to God to believe in God. For on the one hand it is to suppose that he has perpetrated acts of incalculable cruelty. On the other hand, it is to suppose that he has perversely given his human creatures an instrument- their intellect- which must inevitably lead them, if they are dispassionate and honest, to deny his existence. It is tempting to conclude that if he exists, it is the atheists and agnostics that he loves best, among those with any pretensions to education. For they are the ones who have taken him most seriously.
— Galen Strawson (b. 1952), British philosopher, literary critic. Quoted in: Independent (London, 24 June 1990).
He was an embittered atheist (the sort of atheist who does not so much disbelieve in God as personally dislike Him).
— George Orwell (1903-50), British author. Down and Out in Paris and London, ch. 30 (1933).
An atheist may be simply one whose faith and love are concentrated on the impersonal aspects of God.
— Simone Weil (1909-43), French philosopher, mystic. Quoted in: W. H. Auden, A Certain World, "God" (1970).
Ernie J. Zelinski
Author of The Joy of Not Working
http://www.thejoyofnotworking.com/rights.htm
Posted by: Ernie Zelinski | January 25, 2008 at 11:52 PM
Surely the idea of God being able to think, nevermind being 100% certain about something, is human constructed?
Even if there is a God or higher being, which i am not denying, who would condemn us to "hell" for not following a conduct of behaviour defined by people who were alive over 2000 years prior to ourselves (and therefore lacking 2000 years worth of knowledge and learning derrived from experience), I would prefer to live my life to the full, and conduct actions purely on rational thought and the values and morals that I hold, and have come to realise myself, through experience, and not through a book whose teachings are enforced by fear (if you disagree re-read the post). Leading a life this way, I will happily walk away from the gates of heavan knowing that i wouldn't be accepted as a person there anyway, as if a life led by my own values, without causing harm to, belittling, or constricting a person, is not good enough to "get me in", i doubt i would enjoy spending the rest of eternity there anyway.
I apologise for the long sentences and lack of proof reading
Posted by: Mike | December 24, 2007 at 06:18 PM
It's silly to say I'm "agnostic" about Santa Claus or the Tooth Fairy or weapons of mass destruction just because I can't mathematically prove, with 100% confidence, they don't exist, the same way I can prove 2+2=4. I'm as certain of those things as I am that the sun will rise tomorrow. It's simpler just to call myself an "atheist" (or even "Athiest" as some commenters have), rather than play a stupid game of semantics where words stop meaning anything and there's no way to express the concept of belief beyond reasonable doubt.
There are lots of interesting arguments about the (non)existence of god(s). This isn't one. It's just deliberate confusion over the meaning of perfectly straightforward words. You're telling people what they believe and then telling them it's wrong. Come on.
Posted by: Epistaxis | October 27, 2007 at 08:00 AM
Ahhh..the wisdom of man.
Posted by: Mark | September 01, 2007 at 09:09 AM
Actually you can be 100% sure in some things.
If your statement is : "purple monkeys do not exist" than you indeed would have to inspect every single sqare inch of the whole universe in the search for the purple monkey before you could say with 100% certainity that "purple monkeys do not exist". But if you say "round sqares do not exist" you don't have to be all knowing to be 100% sure that you are correct, because the strict rules and mathematical laws that define the square make it impossible for a round sqare to exist.
It's exactly the same thing with the God question.
God is:
1) All knowing
2) All powerful
3) All loving
Defining God like this would grant Him the power and the willingness to stop all suffering in the world. So the mere existance of suffering proves the non-existance of our defined God 100% and that is not a bad chance even for eternity.
Posted by: Szkeptik | August 27, 2007 at 09:21 AM
So, I should believe, just in case? Isn't that just intellectually dishonest? Does God REALLY want a bunch of fearful sheep, instead of intelligent and enlightened individuals?
If deciding to believe is such an easy thing, they you should decide to follow Odin. If you don't follow Odin when Ragnarok comes around, you're gonna be in some deep doo-doo.
Sorry, this rehashing of Pascal's Wager is still the thinly veiled threat that it always was.
Posted by: Chris | August 24, 2007 at 09:30 AM
You forgot something: just believing in god doesn't quite cut it. You need to believe in the RIGHT god. So if I'm 99.999...% sure that there is no god, but don't want to take a chance on an eternity in hell, which god should I believe in?
Here's an idea: I should do a comparative study of the concept of posthumous punishment for heretics and/or sinners in all religions, and choose the religion with the crappiest afterlife for non-believers. That would be my religion. Alternatively, I could calculate the delta between the rewards in the afterlife of the righteous to the above punishment, and choose the best religion according to that.
Or, of course, I could assume that if there's a god out there that expects me to believe and worship him just because I don't want to spend eternity in hell even though he hasn't lifted a finger for any good cause in the last couple millenia - well, sod him.
Posted by: DK | August 23, 2007 at 06:29 PM
"What can be asserted without proof can be dismissed without proof." ~ Christopher Hitchens
Posted by: Jack | August 23, 2007 at 05:46 PM
I always find the religious fervour in Atheists attempting to convince you that Atheism isn't a faith, but an absence of faith, very very amusing.
Posted by: DrJon | August 21, 2007 at 07:18 AM
Time for a theology exam!
3. You are a product tester and frequently bring your work home. Yesterday, while dressed in a flame resistant suit (up to 3,000 degrees) and carrying the latest model fire extinguisher, you discover your neighbor's house is on fire. As the flames quickly spread, you stand and watch your neighbor's new born baby burn to death. Which of the following best describes your behavior?
A. All-powerful
B. All-knowing
C. All-loving
D. Mysterious
5. You are the incarnated Son of the all-powerful and all-loving Creator of the universe. What would be a good way to demonstrate your compassion and power?
A. Cure cancer forever
B. Cause all the earth's deserts to bloom with food crops
C. Unite the world with a common language and an end to poverty
D. Conjure up a jug of wine and follow it up by walking on water
6. Since we can never "know" whether or not a God exists - it is fundamentally a matter of "faith" - it's best to be a believer since you have nothing to lose, but everything to lose if your disbelief is incorrect. Keeping in mind that the fate of your soul depends on the right choice, in which God should you place your belief? For extra credit, include a brief essay justifying your choice, along with the reasons why you reject the other three.
A. Zeus
B. Quetzalcoatl
C. Vishnu
D. The Holy Trinity
(*Note: Choice D assumes you were born around 400 A.D. or later, after the invention of the Trinity)
21. Jesus was God, and God knows all things, including all the medical knowledge that will ever be known. Why did Jesus blame demons for the case of epilepsy he cured?
A. He was suffering from a temporary case of "brain freeze"
B. The Aramaic word for "demon" is the same as the word for "cranial malfunction"
C. Neurology was not his specialty
D. In first-century Palestine, demons really did cause epilepsy. This affliction only began to be caused by electrochemical brain activity after about 1850 A.D.
25. A great sadness has come into your life which you feel you cannot bear. A friend informs you of a free counseling service which has never failed to aid and comfort many others. You call the counselor; the phone rings and rings with no answer; you finally hang up. What is the most likely explanation?
A. The counselor is sitting by the phone but not answering in order to test your faith in him
B. The counselor always stands ready to hear your pleas for help, but sometimes the answer is "no"
C. The counselor will not answer because he wants you to profit by the spiritual strength that only comes through suffering
D. The counselor is not home
Posted by: Slappy White | August 15, 2007 at 10:21 AM
This is such a frustrating blog posting Mr. Adams, because you are doing what you usually so successfully lampoon -- that is speaking as an expert on something about which you have little knowledge. Atheism is the lack of belief in a god, or indeed any gods. That is all it is. The question of whether there is a god is ancillary. And, in my experience, the only folks who've taken the time to truly examine that question are the atheists. Reading the bible is what turns most atheists into atheists (at least in the USA where christianity is the predominant religion).
As an atheist, I can state that I am not 100% sure there is no god. I am 100% sure that the god of the christian bible does not exist as he is described in that book. There are too many contradictions that cannot be true. Could it be a flawed book that talks about some god "out there" that did not do everything in that book? Possibly, but I find no credible evidence that even that is true. I'm open to it - as are most atheists. The problem is that there is no credible evidence.
Posted by: csm | August 11, 2007 at 09:57 PM
If you have ever read Dawkins,Nica Lalli or heck most of the comments on this page, it is amusing how the augments of atheists are almost always dripping with a "there just CAN'T be a God....right????" tone.
I have friends who are Atheists and Agnostics and I know they are always highly intelligent and logical people. And that’s the problem. You can't prove God (or disprove him). You just can’t. You can debate and argue till we are all blue in the face without a resolution. Psst- that the point. Its called faith.
Religion, all religions are inherently flawed because they mostly rituals and rules created by HUMANS. Which, we all know are far from perfect. To pick apart the Catholic mass or Muslim credo is silly because God didn’t come down and decree that you must not eat meat of Friday and you must obey the five pillars of Islam or you are going to hell. PEOPLE did.
But I know this much,Love exists and you cant see or prove that either. God is love and I don’t anyone who would want to live in world without that.
Posted by: at | August 11, 2007 at 11:41 AM
In theory, whenever you/your mother/your wife/etc. looked at your genitals, you could have all just got it wrong. Brains can do funny things. There's the slightest of chances.
Scott, you could be a woman.
I'd like you to open yourself to that possibility, and in the meantime, stop calling yourself a Man. From now on, you're an agnostic when it comes to your gender, OK?
Posted by: Daniel Lucraft | August 11, 2007 at 09:07 AM
Can you be 100% *certain* about your argument that one cannot be 100% certain?
Posted by: Paras Chopra | August 09, 2007 at 08:32 AM
Hi Scott,
Long time reader, first time caller.
I read a little bit of the comments, and felt I should call to order some points.
A)In Christianity, one must only accept Jesus as the begotten Son of God, and the only way out of Hell. The other things spring from this. That is, it is not required to go to church, just that your newfound faith will arise to make you want to go.
B)Your argument on atheism is a good one. But the opposite must be true. If you can't be certain that God exists, then you can't be certain that He doesn't either. The flaw in your argument is that atheists care if He exists or not. I had a friend tell me he couldn't believe in a God that endorsed genocide. Not that he didn't think He existed.
C)To the atheists in the thread, I understand what you're saying. God doesn't seem to be very nice in the Old Testament and the rules seem to be harsh. And in a lot of ways, they probably are. But the point of christianity is not to impose a will on yours, but to freely move your will aside to a better plan. Every person who accepts Christ as their savior is saying "I need you in my life. Enter in, and create a new me". as a result only those who need (or think they need) intervention is ever Christian. Despite a lot of people to the contrary, you can't hurt or badger into the faith. it simply doesn't work like that.
In closing, it is not the threat of hell that motivates the average Christian (though there are souls that believe that implicitly) but the promise of something better.
Best of luck to everyone in their spiritual journey.
Posted by: BillyBadass | August 09, 2007 at 07:32 AM
Mr. Adams,
Another thing about certainty. I know this is an old argument, but can you be 100% certain I don't have an elephant in my pocket? If I believe that I do, and you believe that I don't, can you be 100% certain that he doesn't exist as I believe? You could be in serious trouble if we met and that highly improbably elephant liked to stomp the $hit out of people named Scott.
An atheist is someone who finds that there is no credible evidence that any gods exist. It has nothing to do with certainty.
Posted by: Rob | August 08, 2007 at 01:49 PM
I'm an atheist. That means I don't believe in God. Whether or not God exists is a different question.
Actually, it wouldn't matter if I was 100% sure there isn't a God, or 99% sure, or 75% sure, or 35%, or 10%, or 0%. My personal lack of belief, just like anyone else's belief or lack thereof, has nothing to do with whether or not there is, factually, a God.
Posted by: speedwell | August 08, 2007 at 11:15 AM
Actually, maths say you should not believe. What happens if a religion doesn't doom unbelievers but dooms followers of false gods? For example, it could very well be that the one true religion has not been revealed yet. If that's the case and god is fair, believing in any of the current or past religions would be bad, and not believing would be correct and rewarded. For example, if the one true religion is cristianity, it has only been available for about one third of written history. If god is fair, those who could not be christians are not in hell. But those who followed Baal are. Since the number of religions that posit god's fairness is a vast majority and the odds of all religions in the universe being known or available to us at the current moment is probably low, it's "bad math" to believe.
Posted by: Roberto Alsina | August 08, 2007 at 10:08 AM