Hiring Republicans

I put a question on Predictify.com asking how many of my new book would be in print by the end of January. The average of the predictions is over 304,000. http://www.predictify.com/AuctionView.aspx?ID=176

As the creator of the question, I get special rights to look at the demographics of the predictors to see what kind of correlations there are. I noticed there isn’t much difference in the predictions by religion or gender or level of education and so on. But two categories jumped out.

Notice the difference in average predictions by political affiliation:

Republicans:  352,000
Democrats:    286,000
Independents: 275,000

Are Republicans more optimistic than Democrats, and are they projecting that optimism on my book? That’s my hypothesis. And it tracks with the fact that independents have the lowest predictions. I think the cynics and pessimists are the people least likely to be part of an organized movement.

The other big difference in predictions was by employment:

Students:   325,000
Employed:   295,000
Unemployed: 164,000

Those predictions also track with what I imagine is the level of optimism for those demographic groups. Students are idealistic and don’t appreciate how hard the real world is going to be. They are optimists. People with jobs are likely to be far more optimistic than unemployed people.

Hypothetically, suppose researchers confirmed that Republicans are the most optimistic people by nature. Since optimism is an important contributor to success, if you were trying to fill a position in your company, would it make economic sense to favor Republicans, even if you held a different political view?

Speaking of my book, Stick to Drawing Comics, Monkey-Brain!, that I am shamelessly plugging all week, here’s a link to Amazon, or you can get it in your local bookstore. (I gave you two posts today to compensate for my inexcusable capitalism.)

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1591841852?ie=UTF8&tag=dilbertcom20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=1591841852

Comments

[zaki]

THE AMERICAN PEOPLE WOULD APPRECIATE IT IF YOU WOULD STEP DOWN AS CHIEF ADVISOR TO OUR CURRENT PRESIDENT TO GEOGRGE .W. BUSH OUR BRAVE , JUST AND MORAL COMMANDER IN CHIEF AND FUHRER , AMEN!

[Amit]

Scott, you got your analysis wrong. The stats just go to indicate that republicans and students have more spare time at their side as compared to others. You see the Dance Monkey Dance Saga, these are the protagonists there :)

[chuckleberry]

half way across the world ... i found a book store yesterday in India offering prices on scotts books that the first thought in my mind was that they aren't the publishers copy or in other words it must have been a fake copy.. but in any case .. got the books and compared to prices in US that is a steal(after buying i must confess they do look genuine :) )

[Marxist]

Hmm.

[Outbound]

Or maybe they just have damaged frontal lobes?

-

Scientists Point to Brain Region of 'Free Won't'
Research adds to the evidence suggesting that brain dysfunction can compromise free will

http://www.dana.org/news/features/detail.aspx?id=9534

[DanW]

These results are skewed. As the democrats have readily admitted, many Democrats are not smart enough to understand even the most simple voting process (See Florida 2002 presidential election).

[thetigress17]

The new book is available in Australia too. Try Amazon or one of the really big booksellers, its not in all their branch stores but it can be ordered online.

[Bob]

"I think the cynics and pessimists are the people least likely to be part of an organized movement."

You think that Republicans and Democrats are part of an organized movement? Bowel movement, maybe. Republicans and Democrats are the same thing, voting for the status quo. The status quo does not count as a movement. It is the opposite. I don't know how organized independents are, but they are the only ones on that short list trying to change anything. It is also worth pointing out that independents are, in general, optimistic (some say unreasonably so) that an independent will be president someday.

[Ray Kremer]

You know, that does correlate with what Rush Limbaugh says about conservatives being optimistic and liberals being pessimistic.

[ShakeAndBake]

I got news for you: people with real jobs ARE Republicans.

[Clair]

republicans may be by and large business people and lord knows that you have to have a positive attitude to survive the rigors of democratic taxation. Michigan reigns last in the nation thanks to all of ouir small minds.

[Larry]

I suspect the employment demographic had to do with other causes... Namely, students have nothing better to do than tell people what they think, while those unemployed with internet connections are working more on GETTING employed than to make predictions. Except for those, as you can see, who are eating a can of beans during a break between phone interviews.

[QwkDrw]

Can you believe it -- a huge number of otherwise thoughtful people with excellent self-preservation capacities actually identified themselves as Republicans?

Some people don't even know any ...
!!

[Loren Bell]

It's as simple as the fact that Republicans are optimistic about our economy and the monetary success an investment will bring. They are generally the ones taking the risk and raking in the rewards. Democrats are probably too busy trying to save the world from themselves to vote on the web anyway! Guilty feelings may fail to produce positive thoughts.

I wonder if those independents are the types that are so pessimistic about both sides of the isle that they have to hate both! That would explain their voting.

L

[Putin]

Probably there's a correlation between political prefferences and employment. Wouldn't there be one?

[E Blair]

I'm a Democrat and optimistic that Scott will send me a free copy of his new book!

[registerjust]

How come it is your book? I guess it has funny comments by us too. So, it is our book.
Well if it is our book. Then how come we got to pay for it.?!?!

[David MacMillan]

Maybe it's just that since Republicans are always being pushed out of their political comfort zone by the Democrats (e.g. "just a little compromise") that they are more open to finding humor in a wide range of opinions. By contrast, we Democrats tend to fly off the handle and start bouncing up and down with rage whenever you even mention evolution, much less question it.

Or maybe the more people laugh at you, the easier it is to laugh at yourself and find humor in differences - rather than being dead serious about everything. I mean, what group of politicians tells more jokes?

[Kyle]

You know, Scott, in any set of statistics, there are going to be outliers. You can't just pick the two most non-evenly distributed statistics and say, Hey! This means something! You can draw a hypothesis, then run an actual study with a control group and all that to see if you are right. I don't doubt that your predictions are plausible, but don't draw conclusions from such a limited sample. Didn't they make you take statistics in college?

[Matt]

Mr Adams,
One more link to your book on amazon, I dare you!!!

[Calgarian]

You're talking about the difference between Pepsi & Coke again ... in my own experience the most optimistic people that I've met are usually deluded.

The main advantage of having happy, optimistic employees is that you don't have to give them raises :)

[grepthis]

I'm thinking you must be a Republican, Scott. It has to be optimism driving you to the conclusion that hiring a Republican is the path to success.

Having Republicans running things for the last 7 years has really proved that premise.

Heckuva job, Optimists.

[Bri]

Well Republicans are obviously more loyal to the welfare of business.
1. They're less likely to vote for tax increases, unless the tax is to shift to the general taxpayer those costs generally assumed by the business alone.
2. They're also less likely to vote for environmental regulations that would burden businesses with having to clean up after themselves after they have polluted the air, earth and water for the future generations in the blind chase for greater present day profits.
3. They're less likely to vote for minimum wage increases that make it more difficult for employees and employers to agree upon an acceptable wage. Indeed, an average worker, if left to negotiate on his or her own behalf, would likely be able to negotiate quite a respectful salary, such as food scraps and a cardboard box to sleep in. If I understand history, when there was no minimum wage, workers were regularly highly paid. The minimum wage destroyed this, and lead to much lower wages for the workers. At least that’s what my Ayn Rand Monthly Magazine tells me and so it must be so.
5. They're less likely to have spent any time in the workforce as the workforce does all the work for them and they just collect the profits and bitch, bitch, bitch about how hard it is to get a good workforce nowadays.
6. They're less likely to support strict limits on immigration, thus increasing the supply of labor in American markets--making it easier for the business to buy that labor cheap.
7. They're more likely to support initiatives to ban personal choice in birth control, abortion, divorce and to support govt’l power to invade personal privacy so long as business privacy is protected.
8. They're less likely to form unions, thus keeping the cost of labor down. They're also less likely to support pensions, depressing the cost of labor even more, and making the business even more efficient, that is, more blood thirsty..
They are for closed market economies where monopolies rule and where established industries are allowed to snuff out new enterprises. There is no greater enemy of capitalism than a successful capitalist.
9.They are for high quality health care for those who can pay for it and for those who cannot, they can sicken and die and thereby reduce the surplus population.
10. They're more likely to cause disturbances in the workplace with their uptight attitudes about race/gender issues; their love of sexual harassment as their primary form of interpersonal relationship, etc.

[Billy Arvia]

Scott,

Republicans like it because it goes right along with their philososphy. You have taken something that was previously available for free and are now charging people for it.

http://triplebee.squarespace.com/

[James Yeamans]

Why would I want to buy your book, when I can read your posts for free? There are a million suckers born everyday i suppose. ...SUCKERS!!....