The Future of Newspapers

People often ask me to predict how long newspapers can survive in the Internet age. Ten years ago I believed newspapers would last another five years. Clearly I am not qualified to make this sort of prediction. But being unqualified has never dampened my enthusiasm for publicly embarrassing myself. I think it’s time to take another run at this prediction.

First, it must be noted that old technologies sometimes evolve to stay relevant. For example, radio evolved from something the family listens to in the living room to something that individuals (mostly) listen to in the car. There’s some chance that newspapers could evolve in a totally unexpected way and thrive for a hundred years. Let me paint a picture that seems most likely to me.

I predict that the end of printed newspapers will happen in the time it takes for most people to upgrade their cell phones two more times. The iPhone, and its inevitable copycats, (let’s call them iClones) are newspaper killers. When you have a web browser in your pocket, a printed newspaper is redundant. Eventually, all cell phones will have Internet browsing built in. You might not have a web browser on your next cell phone, but the one after that will have it as a standard feature.

Most people prefer to read a printed page versus a computer screen. A cell phone screen is the worst of all. But newspapers will collapse as a business long before 100% of iPhone and iClone owners give up their printed newspaper subscriptions. I don’t know if it will take 20% of iPhone/iClone owners to cancel their subscriptions, or if it will take 60%, but whatever the number, it seems likely we will reach it. Then the printed newspaper will disappear.

The iPhone and iClones have several advantages over regular newspapers. The news on the Internet is mostly free, and updated by the minute. Your cell phone can include video clips, and the news can be filtered for your personal preferences. Browsing web pages on a phone is slow at the moment, but the speed will improve.

I predict one more innovation in cell phones that is the real wild card for newspapers. I’m sure someone has already invented this in a lab or written about it in a science fiction book, but it’s a somewhat obvious idea. Let's call it a Venetian screen.

Imagine your cell phone equipped with a built-in scroll of “digital paper” that pulls out to the side, like a sideways Venetian blind, for reading web pages and documents. It would look like this. (click to enlarge)

That will solve the issue of phone screens being too tiny to read. Your phone would still have a regular screen for most purposes, but for pleasure reading, you pull out the Venetian screen with its larger and clearer text.

In this imagined future, the newspaper publishers make the move to all-digital newspapers. But that won’t be much of a business unless they change the concept of a newspaper at the same time. What I’d like to see is a newspaper that is a hybrid of social voting, such as you see on web sites like www.reddit.com and www.digg.com, but further filtered by human editors who weed out the redundant, the juvenile, and the stuff unsubstantiated by facts. And I’d like to see counterpoints to everything. This way you’d get the stories and opinions considered most worthy by the public, with some editorial quality control.

I also imagine the business model for bloggers changing. Now bloggers run ads and make money based on the traffic to their sites. In the future, I can imagine bloggers opting in for a system where they allow newspapers to grab their content any time the newspapers want, move it into the newspaper’s own content model on any given day, surround it with their own ads, and pay the blogger a percentage of ad revenue. In other words, every blogger (and cartoonist) would be self-syndicated, but newspapers wouldn’t print the same bloggers every day. They’d grab only the best writings of the day based on social voting and the newspaper’s own editorial opinions.

Online newspapers would offer subscribers several options. You could have an uncensored online newspaper for adults, a G-rated version for kids, a version with extra helpings of good news, or celebrity news, etc. And of course the reader could select his own local news, weather, and ads.

Comics would be much funnier if cartoonists didn’t have to conform to a G rating as is now the case. With online newspapers, and individual filters for each reader, a kid could subscribe to a newspaper with Dilbert in it, but any off-color strips would be automatically replaced by something more appropriate for that day. Everyone wins.

It’s easy to think that everything I described could be so automated you never need much in the way of a newspaper business organizing it all. I don’t think that will ever happen. You still need hordes of people keeping the technology current, editing for quality control, doing the art, doing market testing, selling the right kind of ads, etc.

So I see printed newspapers lasting until you upgrade your phone two more times. But the newspaper business can thrive online if it changes how it gathers and edits content. And clearly there will be massive amounts of consolidation. There won’t be 3,000 newspapers online. There might be a dozen. And local news will come from hometown bloggers who self-syndicate to all of the newspapers.

That’s how I see it.

Comments

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[prefabrik konut]

The roll out screen! I've been anxiously awaiting that particular dream of mine to become a reality for exactly this reason!

[Lee-Anne Fisher]

I would like this to be posted in your paper free of charge if thats possible.

Thanking You

[Lee-Anne Fisher]

I would like this to be posted in your paper free of charge if thats possible.

Thanking You

[Ryan]

Your 'venetian blind' idea is not that far off

OELD monitors (from what I remember) are capable of being rolled up and are incredibly thin.

Sony just rolled out with them (currently very expensive, but the price would probably come down eventually)

http://www.sonystyle.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/ProductDisplay?catalogId=10551&storeId=10151&productId=8198552921665327724&langId=-1

[Great]

There's a voice that keeps on calling me. Down the road, that's where I'll always be. Every stop I make, I make a new friend. Can't stay for long, just turn around and I'm gone again. Maybe tomorrow, I'll want to settle down, Until tomorrow, I'll just keep moving on.

[yaroslav stolyarchuk]

While studying Computer Engineering at University I came across staggering data and statistics regarding minorities, graduation rates and access to books. In todays high tech media environment, all people, young people especially need to be encouraged to read physical books. When I had my first child I was disappointed at the high price of used books for children in my area. As I searched for a cost effective way to locate books I ran across this company: www.booksliquidation.com.
They offer wholesale prices on boxes to truckloads of used books (by genre) at very reasonable shipping rates throughout the US and abroad. For instance, at less than $50 a family can receive around 100 good condition kids books including shipping. Most books are like new condition and priced lower than books found at Goodwill or any used book store. The price of books is definitely one factor not talked about when promoting reading. Access to quality books at a price anyone can afford will most assuredly eliminate one barrier in regards to young people's ability to read. Statistics show that the average high-school graduate has(had) a minimum 50 books available to them to read in their homes. Those going on to post elementary education had atleast 100 books in their homes. Books are expensive! Booksliquidation.com is one company that is assisting families in their effort to create a rich at-home reading environment for their children and their personal reference.

[yaroslav stolyarchuk]

While studying Computer Engineering at University I came across staggering data and statistics regarding minorities, graduation rates and access to books. In todays high tech media environment, all people, young people especially need to be encouraged to read physical books. When I had my first child I was disappointed at the high price of used books for children in my area. As I searched for a cost effective way to locate books I ran across this company: www.booksliquidation.com.
They offer wholesale prices on boxes to truckloads of used books (by genre) at very reasonable shipping rates throughout the US and abroad. For instance, at less than $50 a family can receive around 100 good condition kids books including shipping. Most books are like new condition and priced lower than books found at Goodwill or any used book store. The price of books is definitely one factor not talked about when promoting reading. Access to quality books at a price anyone can afford will most assuredly eliminate one barrier in regards to young people's ability to read. Statistics show that the average high-school graduate has(had) a minimum 50 books available to them to read in their homes. Those going on to post elementary education had atleast 100 books in their homes. Books are expensive! Booksliquidation.com is one company that is assisting families in their effort to create a rich at-home reading environment for their children and their personal reference.

[estetik]

yes, Simpsons did it.

[joseph hollak]

What will I line my birdcage with?

[wendy fidler]

I believe technology will not over throw the printed news. One good example is not everyone is technology friendly. Print news can be circulated to a variety of people who do not own computers or the iphones/iclones. Newspapers will be around for a very long time considering the printing press was one of the first means of communication. I can also see how the new technology is making life a little more friendlier then in the past. One must ask this: "What will happen to all those who still wait for the Sunday paper in their area for the COUPONS?"

[wendy fidler]

I believe technology will not over throw the printed news. One good example is not everyone is technology friendly. Print news can be circulated to a variety of people who do not own computers or the iphones/iclones. Newspapers will be around for a very long time considering the printing press was one of the first means of communication. I can also see how the new technology is making life a little more friendlier then in the past. One must ask this: "What will happen to all those who still wait for the Sunday paper in their area for the COUPONS?"

[Brant Boucher]

I think the newspaper will be around on paper for some time to come. We're going to run out of rare metals needed to make cellphones, etc., long before we run out of wood, cotton, linen, etc. While the 10-15 year window that a recent NEW SCIENTIST article predicted for current mineable supplies is likely to lengthen, and two thirds of the gold ever mined are still in use, we're already running up against peak oil.

I still spend a lot of money on books and magazines -- considering each book costs more than a month of broadband and the magazines are running as high as $13.00 each. I still buy newspapers. For one thing, it's easier to read the comics on paper than to wait while the stuck- in- the- nineties online paper downloads. I haven't bought a cellphone since 1999. Newspapers don't nag you. I wish I had that old cellphone though. It would make a good weapon.

[Richard Brennan]

I am a PGDIP Journalism student at the University of Westminster studying this topic. I found your blog post extremely interesting, and I would like to link to it via a website I am helping create for my course. Obviously, I will not lift any content from your site.

My own views are similar to yours- there will always be people who enjoy reading being able to read a newspaper on their commute and hate reading via a screen for any period of time, but will this market be enough to ensure a newspaper can stay alive? Perhaps the printed newspapers of a decade on will be posted out, as newsagents will require space for electronic items and foodstuffs and feel their sale of newspapers is not cost-effective for them.

[Dorte Toft]

Just to let you know that I - a very old Danish free lance journalist - have blogged about your opinion. And that I have "lifted" your drawing (the venetian screen) to illustrate the development you foresee. Hope it is o.k. Otherwise let me know, and I will remove the drawing immediately.

[Joshua Zambrano]

Nah. Newspapers aren't going anywhere any time soon. For one thing, senior citizens still aren't accustomed to the new technology of computers, and even some baby boomers aren't accustomed to them yet. Until that accustoming happens, there will be a market for newspapers.

But for another thing, a lot of people don't like spending all that much time at a computer screen. It puts pressure on your eyes. And what's more, even if you're one of the select who carries a laptop everywhere, it takes time to load that up and browse to the page you want. It's also bulkier than a newspaper. And yeah, you could read from a phone with internet access, but of course that will be tough to read from.

I just don't see newspapers disappearing any time soon, although I think you make a decent argument for it happening.

[JohnN]

Brilliant article,

I find myself agreeing almost wholeheartedly.

[Phil]

Yet again I need to comment as I catch up!

You need to factor in that printed books haven't been replaced by e-books. Obviously there isn't the worry about it going out of date but in a digital age it speaks volumes and suggests people would rather read yesterdays news for most topics than todays news on a screen, no matter what size.

There may be fewer of them but I doubt you'll get rid of printed news papers for decades unless there is a massive global warming related price hike for paper as an incentive.

[David]

Two things you may be failing to take into account: an unusually large portion of both print and radio media is taken up by unedited, fanciful rubbish whose entire reasons for being is simply to titillate the consumer. I'm talking about tabloids and "talk radio". Beyond that, most so-called "newspapers" seem to have evolved into little more than delivery vehicles for ads scattered among nationally syndicated stories. In my home-town, the big sales pitch behind buying the Sunday newspaper: you get $237.25 of coupons! When you toss out the coupons, classifieds, Real Estate and Apartment sections, what's left is about the same size as a daily paper. And 90% of the stories are IDENTICAL to yesterday's Yahoo! News articles.

The only objection I have to your model is that the newspaper costs $10/mo, whereas (slow) internet connections for cell phones is $30-$90/mo. And don't forget us "Baby Boomers", most of whom will be unable to read ANY cell phone display in ~5 years without reading glasses!

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[smays]

Dear Mr. Adams: Brilliant post. Even if you're wrong (which I don't think you are). I would dearly love to hear your thoughts on The Future of Radio. -- Steve Mays, Jefferson City, MO

[Eoin Brennan]

It's been done - in Earth Final Conflict the major characters had a PDA / communicator which opened exactly as in the illustration.

[Neil]

The "mobiles" in TekWar (the TV series) had a similar device, that you pulled out to the side. It wasn't paper, but sturdy plastic (or whatever stuff was made from in TekWar's exciting view of the future) which allowed for a larger viewing screen - on the show this was used for video calls I think (you need larger video calls when the person who needs to see it is a viewer, not the "person" holding the actual device.

ahem. I also think that if intelligent paper gets cheap/well developed soon, you might buy one from a company that will then let you subscribe to a newspaper's feed. This would download onto the intelligent sheet for you to peruse, as a normal, though lightweight newspaper, until you upload the next days news into it.

[Matt]

They've been talking about the death of newspapers for a long time.

http://paleo-future.blogspot.com/2007/08/electronic-newspaper-1978.html