Last night I saw some pundits on the news discussing the results of a poll. When Americans were asked if they would vote for an African-American for president, more than 9 out of 10 people said yes. But when asked if they knew anyone who would not vote for an African-American, about half said they know such a person.
One inference you might make from these results, and the one drawn by the pundits on the show, is that people are secretly racists. They tell pollsters they are not bigots, but once inside the voting booth they are.
The other inference is something I call math. If there are ten friends, and only one is a racist, then it is true that 90 percent are not racists while everyone knows someone who is. It’s that one guy.
Here’s the way I think the election is going to go down. Obama will get nominated, and polls will start to show he will get 95% of the African-American vote. This will frighten all the racists who hadn’t planned to vote, and get them to the polling places, thus handing the election to John McCain, even if he is only being kept alive by machines at that point.
Here’s a little unscientific survey question of my own:
1. Do you personally know anyone who thinks Obama is a Muslim?
2. Do you personally know anyone who suspects Obama might secretly hate America and is running for President to destroy it from within?
I know registered voters in both of those categories. That's why your next president will be named McCain. That's just a prediction, not a preference.
*sigh*
The one thing that strikes me about American democracy is that it gives every citizen an equal voice and opportunity to make the dumbest, most small-minded possible choice.
Posted by: ereneth | April 30, 2008 at 01:11 PM
1) yes
2) yes
sad
Posted by: Drew | April 30, 2008 at 01:10 PM
95% of black folks vote Democrat anyway (as I recall Bush got 7% of the black vote and people were shocked) so I don't think that knowledge will cause racisits to come out of the woodwork.
Posted by: Oliver Clotheseroff | April 30, 2008 at 12:55 PM
Oh, and on an aside:
#1 Yes (Admitted or otherwise)
#2 Yes - By definition, if he is a democrat he openly "hate(s) America and is running for President to destroy it from within". No more capitalism, confiscatory taxes, free green cards, trees over people, no personal responsibility, and the primal focus of the destruction of the rugged individualism, self reliance, and small government that is what America was about.
Posted by: Narf | April 30, 2008 at 12:29 PM
At least the Dem's get to choose which liberal they try to put in office. (Although I agree, there's no way they can win with the final candidate, whomever it is, alienating 1/3 of their party and about 2/3rd's of the total electorate.
Now think about it from the other side... As a real republican, I've had McCain thrust upon me. And now the real question is which of the three liberals (McCain, Clinton, Obama) will be doing the the thrusting to all of us next January...
Posted by: Narf | April 30, 2008 at 12:22 PM
I believe Obama is the most qualified for the job, so that is why I will vote for him. I am white, male, and middle class.
My personal opinion aside, why is it that hordes of black people voting for Obama BECAUSE he is black is not also viewed as racism. Why is there an NAACP, a united negro college fund, Black Entertainment Television, I even saw a show on a sports channel called "Black College Sports". If you replace "white" or "caucasion" for "black" in any of these institutions/programs, you have a screaming example of racism. Why does it not go both ways?
Posted by: cvantuss | April 30, 2008 at 10:56 AM
1. No, plus I don't care.
2. Sadly, yes. A girl I'm kind of friends with burst out with "Obama is a terrorist" one night... Turns out she's a closet Republican. I was sorely disappointed.
Posted by: May | April 30, 2008 at 10:04 AM
You can say the same thing about Hillary though, that if she's nominated it'll bring all the sexists out to vote for McCain. I guess the most question at hand is, will people vote their hopes or their fears? If they are frightened enough, they will vote their fears.
It seems to me that the best thing the Republican party can do to ensure McCain's victory is to scare the bejeesus out of Americans, and the best thing the Democratic party can do is to alleviate those fears. Kind of make the fight lopsided, doesn't it?
But I have hope. People are sick of being afraid. They will have their voices heard with this election. Mark my words...
Posted by: Shawn | April 30, 2008 at 09:54 AM
---From my armchair, it appears that neither of you will have enough "pledged delegates" to secure the nomination, which means that it will be up to the "superdelegates" to decide the election, much like the Supreme Court did in 2000.---
Could we please drop this whole "Bush stole the election" lie? You people conviently forget that Gore wanted ONLY counties where he lost recounted. The SC ruled that was not valid, they stopped an unconstitutional selective recount. And this was a 7-2 verdict, not exactly split along party lines.
And enough with the "FoxNews watches are primates". I put up with 8 years of the Clinton News Network and we still have every other major media outlet fawning over Obama like they're hoping to be his prom date.
Posted by: darury | April 30, 2008 at 09:30 AM
Which is racist: supporting a a candidate because his is black or being against a candidate because he is black.
I will not vote for Obama, but I would vote for Condy Rice. Race is not involved in either decision.
Also is it age discrimination to not vote for McCain? In your case it seems to be.
interesting.
peace out McCain -Rice in 08.
Posted by: louiswu | April 30, 2008 at 08:46 AM
Obama will get nominated, and polls will start to show he will get 95% of the African-American vote
Doesn't that mean a lot of them are racist?
If a white guy votes for McCain because he's white, why is that more racist than a black guy voting for Obama because he's black?
What if McCain got 95% of the white vote?
Posted by: TallDave | April 30, 2008 at 08:39 AM
My parents whole heartedly believe Obama works for the Taliban. Then forward around emails "warning" people about him. If you asked, they'd say they're not racists. They have black friends.
And we don't live in some repressed back woods state. We're on Long Island, NY.
Bring on President McCain.
Posted by: Scott | April 30, 2008 at 08:16 AM
Democrats aren't going to win this election, because everybody knows they will raise taxes. People can't even pay to put their kids through college, and they don't want to pay a million bucks on every crack baby that is born three months premature.
Besides, McCain has written several good books that you should take the time to read.
Posted by: Alice in Wonderland | April 30, 2008 at 08:15 AM
1. Unfortunatley, I do know more than one ignorant - as in totally clueless, and uniformed - American who thinks Obama is a Muslim. But then I want to say, "So what?" What's wrong with Muslims? Only that same ignorant American will then go on to rant about how they're all terrorists.
2. Thank go, no.
Posted by: Captn R | April 30, 2008 at 08:02 AM
I know someone that was a yes to #1 (my grandmother!) but thankfully was straightened out even before I got to her. This gives me hope that *most* people have gotten past that.
Posted by: Josh | April 30, 2008 at 08:01 AM
From eric:
"I would submit that Obama will not be elected because he's a Socialist and not because he's black. As a white man in this country I'm constantly told by the media and other Socialists that I'm a sexist, racist, homophobe. Not because I've done anything to prove that, but because my opinions don't exactly mesh with the PC crowd. Socialism scares the hell out of me because any government that can presume to tell me what to think is a government that would stomp all over our bill of rights and constitution, all in the name of being "Progressive". Whatever happened to personal accountability and living with the consequences of our actions? We live in a nation where nobody is ever wrong and we're all scared to make moral judgments because we might be thought of as sexist, racist, or homophobic."
That's exactly the situation in the UK now under the current Labour government.
Posted by: TaffAndy | April 30, 2008 at 07:59 AM
Have you maximized your donation to Obama yet?
Posted by: TN | April 30, 2008 at 07:56 AM
Despite my being a free range conservative,
> Know anyone who thinks Obama is a Muslim?
No
> Know anyone who suspects Obama might secretly hate America
No
My answers should be qualified, I suppose -- with "not that I'm currently aware of." Since most of my crowd is non-Democrat, there's actually not much discussion about Obama other than occasional quips re: his dearth of experience and substance. (There's been plenty of tongue-clucking discussions about Jeremiah Wright lately....)
If he becomes the nominee, I expect that will change, and it's possible my answers to the two questions would change, too (I'm partciularly suspcious of my in-laws in this regard .)
Posted by: fuzztop | April 30, 2008 at 07:55 AM
I can't answer your questions, because I'm not sure. I never talk politics with my brother or my wife's uncle anymore. Their fear, ignorance and delusions made those conversations too disturbing.
Of all the people with whom I am willing to discuss politics, none have expressed those opinions. I suspect that is more a reflection of me, than of the people I know. Kind of a Literary Digest poll.
--Stomper
Posted by: Stomper | April 30, 2008 at 07:36 AM
Obama's neither black or white. He's mixed. And that usually means better genes. In terms of physical health and leadership qualities, he kicks ass. Just look at how he ran his campaign. I would like to see him be the agent of change, he is motivated and shows so much promise, and genuinely care about the American folks.
1 & 2 are irrational thoughts stemmed from irrational fears, it would be crazy to take those questions seriously.
Posted by: Nicevil | April 30, 2008 at 07:32 AM
1. Yes
2. No
Posted by: Jon | April 30, 2008 at 07:02 AM
No to both.
If you said yes to number 2, please get them help...they're a paranoid schizophrenic (or super gullible...but they still need your help). I live in the deep south and don't know anyone who (really) thinks that.
I do know a few people who won't vote for him cause he's black...and many who are voting for him cause he is black.
Posted by: fosin | April 30, 2008 at 06:59 AM
"There has been an unprecedented rise in new voter registration, and an unprecedented rise in the number of people voting in primaries."
I really hope Jonathan's right . . .
Posted by: Matt | April 30, 2008 at 06:48 AM
I don't think he "secretly hate(s) America", but I do think his policies will "...destroy it from within". He's about as far socialist left as you can get. That's bad news.
Posted by: Bill Tuttle | April 29, 2008 at 09:04 AM
Why is that bad news? Because you might end up like Sweden?
Where a large proportion of the country is illiterate, where they have no national health system, where the government ignores people dying from national distasters, where they send poor children off to kill millions and die in their thousands before they're even old enough to drink alcohol...
Oh wait, that's not Sweden...
Posted by: Andrew Watson | April 30, 2008 at 06:43 AM
And one more comment - Jeremiah Wright is his FORMER pastor! I'm getting fit to be tied over people associating him as if he's his current pastor and tying them together!
Posted by: Anonymous | April 30, 2008 at 06:42 AM